Silver appears to be near the bottom of 3 of 5 of C

For those who have been following my EW analysis of silver, here is an update.  The silver smash down continues but we have not yet seen that high volume capitulation day (with a possible but not required intra-day rebound) which often accompanies the bottoming of panic selling.  Normally, I would not call selling something a "panic".  Selling stocks is always wise because they might eventually go worthless.  But selling money metals like this does fall into the "panic" heading because they are never going to go worthless.  In other words, it is always safe to buy physical metals on the dip if your time horizon for holding them is retirement (as it should be).

 In any case, the chart broke long term support a few days ago and so significant additional selling was expected.  But I don't actually expect a full mania retrace on silver back to $5 (and if it happens, it is a total gift to anyone who is 20-25 years from retirement!).  What I do expect is for the metal to form an inclining double bottom of some sort and then to go on a rapid tear upwards.  The chart is now at the bottom of the channel and it should find significant support in this region.  Then perhaps a quick head fake up before a capitulation 5th wave or alternatively a failed 5th followed by a breakout.  It could go either way.  Accurate and more importantly, repeatable prediction of chaotic events becomes exponentially more difficult (i.e. more random) as you go down in time scale.  In other words, the big moves are far easier to predict than the small ones.  Thus, grubbing for every last penny is not always the best strategy.  Dollar cost averaging into the bottom is a much more reliable method of accumulating a desired asset at a good price.

In any case, if I charted this correctly it seems that the bottom should occur just around the 4th of July.  It would be a fitting bottom given that sound money is the key to true liberty.