Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Why does the market appear so jittery?

It's an open ended question to which nobody really knows the answer but let me venture my opinion in the form of a picture.  We are now at a point where the economy is stalled because the stimulus from the Federal Reserve has run out.  This was entirely predictable and in fact I predicted many times that this would be the case.  The fake economic bounce which began in March 2009 could only last as long as the free money was flowing from government. 

At this point, unless and until Bernanke gets back in his chopper for another cash drop (something which that loudmouth is going to be sorry he ever said), the markets are now likely to shake out the weak and the marginal.  We have a declining double top which was forming a rising wedge.  The lower support line of the wedge has broken down "with gusto".  The congress has proven to be useless.  Bernanke is probably out of gas.  The economy is at or near zero % growth and unemployment is stubbornly high.  Who in their right mind would stay in stocks which mainly do not pay a dividend looking for a greater fool to unload them on under these conditions?   Last one out of the stock market Ponzi scheme will likely be left holding an empty bag.  If the Dow cannot quickly move up to retake that lower trend line of the wedge (which has now turned from support into resistance) then the herd is most likely going to head south.  Bernanke must move quickly lest the herd build a head of steam.  Once the herd is moving south it will be very, very hard to turn it around again.  Of course, I'm not advocating that Bernanke do anything because all he can possibly do is delay the day of reckoning.  The Ponzi will eventually collapse no matter what he does because in the end analysis you really can't fool all of the people all of the time.
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