Thursday, July 28, 2011

Gullibility checkpoint on deck: will gold react to more Wimpy Promises?

The eventual outcome of the economic debt Ponzi is clear.  Lots of Wimpy Promises have been made to people by businesses and governments which do not have the ability to keep such promises.  The result is that lots of people who currently think they are going to get something they were promised are going to find out over the coming years that they have been conned.  The reward for playing the role of the patsy is to get taken to the cleaners.  The only thing that is unclear is the exact path that this follows and how long it takes to play out.

This brings me to the point of today's topic which is that intelligent people will be watching how gold reacts to the coming deal between con men on the left and con men on the right in US government.  Informed people already know that there is nothing that these clowns and con men can actually do to change the eventual outcome of the dept Ponzi collapse.  They can talk and they can posture and they can legislate and they can make more unkeepable promises but at the end of the day they are powerless to turn a sow's ear into a silk purse.  Why?  Because despite all of it's meddling, government does not control the economy.  Intelligent people know this because they can do simple math and because they know how money works.  If government decides to cut the deficit in a meaningful way then not only the US but the global economy will collapse. 

The economy is so addicted to debt based spending that if such spending dries up there will be a wicked backlash upon everyone.  The debt Ponzi has become too big to shut down gracefully.  Anyone who attempts to do so risks triggering a sudden collapse which will leave that person unfairly blamed for causing the collapse.  Thus governments must try to look busy and to appear concerned but it's nothing more than a professional wrestling show for the cameras.  Unfortunately, neither can they continue to borrow and spend to prop things up because rising interest rates will make even servicing the existing debt unpayable as it is rolled over. 

The only thing to do now is just watch.  There are probably a lot of people who will be fooled into thinking a coming deal will actually fix things.  I see a lot of sheeple on Facebook and on Youtube asking the government to "work together" and to "show leadership" so that we can "move forward together".  Their eyes have not been opened or they are still in Kubler-Ross denial.  They don't understand that government is already working together to avoid the unavoidable collapse.  Each time a government puts on a big show and then kicks the can down the road, that is exactly what is happening.  The problem is global.  How many times, for example, have we heard that the Greek debt problem is "solved"?  How many times have I laughed when I read this?  You can't solve a debt problem by taking on more debt even if at a slightly slower pace than yesterday and that is all that politicians can possibly promise us at this point.

So watch how gold reacts over the coming weeks.  In markets, nothing goes straight up or straight down but gold has been on rails for some time now.  A significant pullback would be the pause that refreshes IMO.  I cannot guarantee that it will happen which is why I suggest that people keep an eye on it.  This observation will give some clues as to the general mind of the herd.  If gold pulls back strongly when the deal is announced then it likely means that the patsies are buying into the con.  Remember, gold is an inverted indicator of confidence in government.  So if gold pulls back then the people are saying they believe that the Titanic is going to miss the iceberg.  If on the other hand gold wiggles a little bit or, worse yet, jumps higher on the news then we can only believe that large numbers of people are not buying the con and they are using the false confidence boost of a debt deal to pile even further out of fiat currencies into real money.  

I personally would like to see a nice pullback in gold as it would suggest that me and my family have more time to prepare.  If gold does pull back significantly then you will know it is ready to turn up again by the headlines as they will probably begin to question whether gold is a bubble, etc.  But gold is not a bubble.  Gold is just an elemental metal.  The value of gold has never changed.  Only the buying power of fiat currency changes and it changes with the mood of the herd.  Government will continue to print fiat currency up out of thin air to pay it's bills and so eventually the herd will figure that out.  But the road could be long and twisty which is why I think it just makes sense not to try to time the markets for most people and to just store their long term retirement wealth at a steady pace into a mechanism which is beyond government theft.  The only thing that meets that definition is physical gold which a person has in his physical possession (with silver as it's more volatile sidekick).

So come on US congress, get on with the show.  We all have front row seats.
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