I generally don't post a lot concerning market timing but I do like to watch the herd movements through the eyes of the Elliott Wave principle. Aligning charts with other trend changers like the coming collapse of the Eurozone can provide strong odds for gambling in the markets. I've been watching Apple shares reach what looks like the 5th of a 5th wave here and I suspect a large pullback of at leat 100 points is coming very soon. It could in fact be quite a bit larger of a pullback. Right now, everyone thinks Apple is unbeatable but without the paranoia and drive and instinct of Steve Jobs at the helm I don't like Apple's chances of continuing this bull run in its stock. I think sales could fall off quickly in the coming recession and then it would be left with a fairly high price to book of 4.69. That is not cheap at all and the only way to continue receiving that premium is to show constant and significant growth. All that has to happen for Apple shares to drop to 350 is for the growth to run out.
I doubt that AAPL will fall in a vacuum. The Dow will probably have to fall as well. I see that it is potentially set up for this with a slight declining double top. A break through resistance in the red circle would reduce the odds of this TA model playing out but if that resistance level holds then we could see a very significant pull back from here.
The markets are not a good place for people who don't want to gamble right now. A collapse back to the lows of 2009 or even further is far from impossible.
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