Thursday, October 14, 2010

Meredith Whitney video with Maria B. regarding state finances

This video is only a couple weeks old.  Meredith is a “numbers person” which is why her past calls on the banking sector were so incredibly accurate.  She also correctly predicted a bottom for banks in early 2009 on the basis that the government would bail them out.  In this most recent video she applies her numerical analytics to the states and has, apparently, rated the states in terms of financial soundness.  #1 is Texas in no small part to the fact that TX had its banking crisis in the 1980s and thus had more conservative banking rules in place.  Worst state of course is my birth state, California, whose corrupt government never saw a vote buying program that it wasn’t willing to spend money it didn’t have on.

Perhaps most eye opening is that Meredith draws a close parallel between the states and the banks pre-crisis.  The same kind of off balance sheet con games are being played by state bureaucrats as were being played by banking bureaucrats in order to cash in on the system.  I see it as all part of a larger problem.   The banks are marginal in the big picture relative to states so banks were hurt first and ultimately will be hurt the worst.  But states are in for some serious pain and there will be no easy solutions.

Lots of people talk about recovery, etc. but the way I see it nothing has been fixed yet.  The day of reckoning has only been kicked down the road a bit more.
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