Sunday, March 21, 2021

You know the bull is in the later innings when they want to talk about the manager more than the money

Cathie Wood is the founder and CEO of leveraged gambling fund ARK invest which is loaded to the gills with every overvalued momo play out there.  Because momo has been working, ARK's performance has been excellent.  But Cathie will at some point join the ranks of Abby Joseph Cohen, Meredith Whitney and a host of lessor known flash in a pan luminary women of finance.   I know this will happen simply by looking at Wood's investment choices which is to say that if it is popular and hyped, she freaking loves it.  Example: she thinks that overpriced TSLA will go to $3000 by 2025.  I'm not saying TSLA won't go up to $3000 by 2025.  I am saying that it can only get there is via momo valuation expansion.  TSLA cannot expand quickly enough in only 4 short years to justify a quadrupling, or more, in market cap.  So if it does get there it's all bubble and no substance.  And when this is the case if you are a true believer that you think the stock is worth that price then you will never sell.  You will make your Ponzi gains and then the whole thing will collapse back down on top of you.

One big sign that the Everything Bubble is near a major peak is that financial "news" is now doing human interest stories on the likes of Wood. Humans like winners.  The problem is, so many of these winners are either simply lucky (like Woods) or bullshit artists (like Madoff).  Sooner or later their luck runs out.  We probably aren't quite there yet.  But at the end of the day, Wood will not know when to get off the Ponzi train and she will ride those shares right back down into the dirt.

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