[RUSL] update

At the backlink I provided the chart model below.




Current snapshot is below but with an alternate count that is now at the the $hit or get off the pot point.  In the green model, RUSL just finished 5 waves up and then 3 waves back down.  So we should expect a reversal back up to new highs from this point, perhaps to kiss the down sloping rail from below before bouncing down and the skyrocketing to new highs as shown.

In the red model, we see that the wave down from the 4th wave HT has not actually finished yet as it is forming an expanding wedge.  We have red 1-2-3-and now WC4.  In this model red 5 is now playing out. 

Zooming in we can see why I think this is a critical point in the count.  This will either out itself as a motive wave down soon but forming 5 waves down OR it will reverse very early next week and begin to head up to new highs per the green path.  To the uninitiated, this model might just be saying "so, RUSL can go up or down, thanks for the insight, genius".   And in fact, that is what it is saying.  So the real EW insight here is not in predicting the future but in providing the trigger that will likely give away the future direction for the ETF.  IF this goes to a lower low than Friday's low then the odds very rappidly move toward the red model.  That breakdown point is $28.55 where as the trade closed at $28.64.  So we are talking about a 9 cent holding risk on a $28 stock.  This is the real magic of EW in helping a gambler navigate the odds. 

This is what most people simply cannot wrap their heads around when they say "charting doesn't work".  I guarantee you it cannot work unless you understand that the stock market is nothing more than gambling on the next moves of the herd and EW charting is just a tool for increasing your odds in the game.  It is not a crystal ball and not because the Elliott wave principle is a false concept.  I think it is a true concept.  The problem is that we humans don't have the visibility or the processing power to see everything that is actually happening.  We mistake our lack of omniscience and omnipotence for chaos.  The glimpses of the correct picture that we do receive can thus only increase our odds of winning, they cannot guarantee success of any of these models.

As loose as this might sound, EW is about 10x better than any other system I have used for trading the markets.