Huge swing in [RUSL] on Friday

In the backlink my model was clear: GTFO of RUSL at least for the near term.  The model said it would most likely take either the red or blue paths and of course both of those begin with big moves down.




 The model suggested one of the 3 likely bottoms would be $27.34.




So on Friday 4-17 RUSL went into free fall losing nearly a full $9 from Thursday's close to Friday's bottom.  It bottomed within 6 cents of the lowest of my three most likely price targets above.

Who says Elliott waves don't greatly increase your odds of winning?  You simply never get this kind of potential accuracy out of old school technical analysis and of course "fundamental" analysis is even more vague and emotional than old school TA.  Not that you always get perfection from EW but I have so many documented cases in these pages of calling non-obvious turning points to within a few pennies using the EW system that you really have to give the system its just due.  And yes, it does help to have a lot of experience in counting waves.  It's one thing to be told by the African safari guide how the animals move.  But having it explained briefly does not make one an expert.  One must study it and even live it for a significant amount of time before the results become worth writing home about.  And even then the accuracy of any wave counter has built into it some waves of ebb and flow in terms of accuracy.  It is impossible to escape as it is built into our DNA and perhaps into the very fabric of the universe.  Yes, I know, that sounds laughable to some but there is order in this universe and all you have to do is review the periodic table of the elements to understand this basic fact.  What appears chaotic is in fact simply a simple failing by the observer in the areas of omniscience and omnipotence.

In any case, the carnage bottomed at almost exactly the 50 fib and so the herd left itself room for this to be treated as a pullback in a broader move up.  Again, the waves are cloudy here but a move back up through that top rail of the wedge and in fact anything except for a big sell off from Monday's open begins to strongly favor the bullish model.  I personally hope for the blue path above that ends mid channel nearabouts $15 in 5 waves down.  If I see that I am loading the boat with RUSL because I would count that as a failed 5th.


Likewise, a breakout above the top down-sloping blue rail would be good technical reason to buy the dip.  The bounce point for this remains in the $200 range according to my current model.