[LUV] update

Airlines are a canary in the economic coal mine.  They have enjoyed a massive rise due to a combination of fed-driven stimulus and a collapse of oil prices along with low interest rates.   It has resulted in a strong move that now appear to be at the end of a massive 3rd or C wave which began in 2011.   Given that we are beginning to see signs of an emerging credit crisis, the leveraged longs might already be edging for the door.

 Here is the backlink and below is the chart provided in it.

Since the last one out of the Ponzi is left holding an empty bag, something which Wall St clearly understands all the while it continues to tell us how investing for the long term is a good thing for the rank and file citizen, wall st traders will cut and run at the first sign that the herd is selling out.

The target price for the coming pullback is ~$28 which is both the level of the prior 4th as well as approximately being the 50% fib.  This does not change even if the shares move a bit higher from here before beginning their pullback. 

OK, so that was the model.  Below is the current chart which looks to be following the red model path provided above.  Note that the critical green support line was not only broken down with gusto but then failed to break back out during the back test.  If my count is correct, a 3rd wave down should begin to unfold pretty quickly, perhaps with a gap as shown.

With that in mind, let's see what the "experts" are saying.  Jim Cramer is always fun to quote at times like this.  You can see his April 9th opinions at this link.  Yes, Cramer thinks the market is stupid and that smart people like him will capitalize on said stupidity.  He thinks he knows what the fundamentals are beyond any doubt.  Let's see how that works out for him.