Today's snapshot suggests that what I had modeled as 4 turned out to be only a of 4. The current snapshot is below. I suspect that Greece will play brinksmanship right up to the April 20th deadline but that it is probably not ready to tell the EU to piss off just yet so it will find some way to restructure the existing debt in order to avoid admitting default. This, according to my model, will produce a very large bounce in the value of Greek debt which is currently being priced for default. If this bottoms according to my model then we should expect a bounce to at least the $14.50 range which, from a modeled low in the $9 range would be a very significant percentage gain of ~50%.
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