Here is the back link to my prior Intel posts. In short, I think the shares are in a bear market. Wave 1 down completed in mid November 2012 with a bottom price of $19.20. Since then the shares have bounced in an a-b-c retracement forming wave 2. This peaked in June of this year at a peak price of about $26. With wave 2 complete I think Intel is now working on a 3rd wave down. Wave 1of3 bottomed around the 1st of Sept. Since then we have seen a-b-c into a price level of $24.80 which was right around the 61.8% fib retracement of big 1 down. With wave 2 complete I now expect a dramatic 3rd wave down. If that lower red support line breaks down, and I give this choppy
pattern better than a 75% chance of doing just that, Intel shares will
be teenagers before the end of the year.
Saturday, November 2, 2013
Intel update
Here is the back link to my prior Intel posts. In short, I think the shares are in a bear market. Wave 1 down completed in mid November 2012 with a bottom price of $19.20. Since then the shares have bounced in an a-b-c retracement forming wave 2. This peaked in June of this year at a peak price of about $26. With wave 2 complete I think Intel is now working on a 3rd wave down. Wave 1of3 bottomed around the 1st of Sept. Since then we have seen a-b-c into a price level of $24.80 which was right around the 61.8% fib retracement of big 1 down. With wave 2 complete I now expect a dramatic 3rd wave down. If that lower red support line breaks down, and I give this choppy
pattern better than a 75% chance of doing just that, Intel shares will
be teenagers before the end of the year.
DRYS exploding in what is probably a 3rd wave up.
In this recent post I suspected that DRYS had finished wave 2 and that wave 3 was on deck. Today, the shares exploded upward to close more than 12% up on the day. That move looks like 5 waves up. So I believe it was 1 of 3. Wave 2 should be a pullback to at least the 38.2 fib and then the real fireworks should start with a breakout of the upper resistance level as wave 3 of 3 unfolds.
If this Elliott wave stuff is starting to look a little too lucky to be luck then don't get too excited. It's simply an odds evaluation tool with built in triggers. It gets more accurate at times and less accurate at others in my experience. As soon as too many people start using it, it makes its own weather, just like the leveraged boys who were running LTCM back in the 90s before it went bust. But for now, the patterns seem to be pretty clear. I think that in times of stress, the wave patterns are more pronounced because the herd has less time to think, less time to pick its way through the crocodiles lining the banks.
If this Elliott wave stuff is starting to look a little too lucky to be luck then don't get too excited. It's simply an odds evaluation tool with built in triggers. It gets more accurate at times and less accurate at others in my experience. As soon as too many people start using it, it makes its own weather, just like the leveraged boys who were running LTCM back in the 90s before it went bust. But for now, the patterns seem to be pretty clear. I think that in times of stress, the wave patterns are more pronounced because the herd has less time to think, less time to pick its way through the crocodiles lining the banks.
Friday, November 1, 2013
Snowden meeting with German government to discuss corrupt NSA spying on Merkel
Well, things are heating up with Snowden again. As if he hasn't already damaged the credibility of the corrupt US government enough, he's now met with a German politician and has agreed to testify before Germany's parliament. This should be a very interesting encounter. Assuming that is, that US assassins don't gun him down in Russia before he gets a chance to tell the truth,
Of course all of this is just a smoke screen cover for something else. You have to be a gullible fool to think that Merkel didn't have a pretty good idea of what the US NSA was capable of doing and also that there was no official oversight outside of the "intelligence" community. In other words, of course they were spying on her. She is waaaaaay too smart to ever have believed otherwise.
So why all of this drama right now? Well, I am of the mind that it has more to do with the ongoing collapse of the global debt Ponzi than it does about monitoring phone calls. Notice how it took several days in order for the outrage to become public? This is the sign that a committee worked on an official response to the "news". The US politicians like to say "never let a good crisis go to waste" and the Germans understand this as well. This is more about getting concessions of some sort (but likely of the economic variety) from the US government. Either that or it will be used as a cover story for some major policy change by the Germans that has economic implications.
Perhaps they will be smart enough to use this faux anger to demand the immediate return of ALL of their gold which is in the hands of the US government. That's what I would do if I were Merkel. I would piss a righteous hissy fit about how abusive Obama's foreign policy has been and in light of this fact Germany can no longer tolerate leaving its gold in the hands of a foreign power that has shown her and her country such disrespect. Of course, the US does not have their gold otherwise we would have returned it upon demand instead of setting some long-term repatriation goals. I mean, why only ask for half of it back with delivery to be at some future time? Why not just demand that it be loaded on a C5-A cargo jet and send it home?
This should be interesting to watch but know this: nothing and I mean nothing is what it seems. The Grand Illusion is still firmly in place.
Of course all of this is just a smoke screen cover for something else. You have to be a gullible fool to think that Merkel didn't have a pretty good idea of what the US NSA was capable of doing and also that there was no official oversight outside of the "intelligence" community. In other words, of course they were spying on her. She is waaaaaay too smart to ever have believed otherwise.
So why all of this drama right now? Well, I am of the mind that it has more to do with the ongoing collapse of the global debt Ponzi than it does about monitoring phone calls. Notice how it took several days in order for the outrage to become public? This is the sign that a committee worked on an official response to the "news". The US politicians like to say "never let a good crisis go to waste" and the Germans understand this as well. This is more about getting concessions of some sort (but likely of the economic variety) from the US government. Either that or it will be used as a cover story for some major policy change by the Germans that has economic implications.
Perhaps they will be smart enough to use this faux anger to demand the immediate return of ALL of their gold which is in the hands of the US government. That's what I would do if I were Merkel. I would piss a righteous hissy fit about how abusive Obama's foreign policy has been and in light of this fact Germany can no longer tolerate leaving its gold in the hands of a foreign power that has shown her and her country such disrespect. Of course, the US does not have their gold otherwise we would have returned it upon demand instead of setting some long-term repatriation goals. I mean, why only ask for half of it back with delivery to be at some future time? Why not just demand that it be loaded on a C5-A cargo jet and send it home?
This should be interesting to watch but know this: nothing and I mean nothing is what it seems. The Grand Illusion is still firmly in place.
Fridiots begin to learn that there are not enough rich people to cover the socialist shortfalls.
Socialists always believe there is deep pool of rich people which you can always steal from in order to cover shortfalls when times get tough. After all, as Obama said clearly to the successful people in society while trying to CONvince the sheeple into voting for him,"If you've got a business—you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen". The underlying message of the Liar In Chief was that all personal success was enabled by someone else and in many cases that someone was the heavy hand of central planners. All central planners are visionary geniuses according to the statist class.
Obama also famously stated that he planned to "spread the wealth around". Everyone took this to mean "open season on rich people". Even middle class people believed that this is what he meant. But the truth is showing in the US and around the world that this is not the case at all. There simply is not enough wealth in the rich to make much of a difference for the poor. The math does not allow for fleecing the rich to pay for social programs. French Socialist Idiots (Fridiots) are now figuring this out as you can read about in a recent post by Mish. A quote from the article:, "“There’s no more room to raise taxes,” said Laurent Dubois, a professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris. “The French feel taxes are going up and purchasing power is going down. They voted for Hollande thinking they’d afford austerity; that the rich would pay. They realize now that that’s not possible. There aren’t enough rich people.”
Well DUH, bozos!! Why is it that you could not do the math beforehand? Why did you have to take the world down this corrupt path? This directly relates back to my prior posts on Americans who are just now waking up to the truth. There simply are not enough rich people to steal from in order to pay for transfer programs to the poor in order for politicians to buy their votes. It requires the fleecing of and the destruction of the middle class in order to do this. OBAMA KNOWS THIS and he always has known it. All socialists know this. So does every libertarian.
There is a major problem with Obama's plan to wipe out the US middle class. Poor people have generally found ways to be content being poor. They can remain poor indefinitely without it being too much of a problem as long as they can feed and breed. Besides, if they get angry all they can do is riot and throw rocks. But the American middle class is past that point and I think it will not devolve happily. Too many Americans work too many hours to just not care if they get impoverished by the heavy hand of government "wealth leveling". In addition, these same Americans are heavily armed. They are far from helpless and they will only take so much. It is not in the nature of the American worker to just lie there and take it forever.
Here is, one last time, one of my favorite links which is to a video of the "Battle at Kruger". I like this video so much because it shows a real life depiction of the herd vs. the predators. At the start of the video, the herd of water buffaloes is walking along calmly when the leader sees some lions resting in front of them. The lions see a young member in the herd. Sensing an easy meal, the lions run into the herd with a "shock and awe" attack. This produces the desired panic which the lions then use to pick out the young calf. They begin to kill it when the broader herd finally figures out that it has been routed by a few measly lions, each of which is only a fraction of the size of any adult herd member. Needless to say, the lions get their asses kicked hard once the herd remembers this simple fact.
And so, I fear, it shall be for the American middle class once they come across some catalyzing moment in the not too distant future.
Obama also famously stated that he planned to "spread the wealth around". Everyone took this to mean "open season on rich people". Even middle class people believed that this is what he meant. But the truth is showing in the US and around the world that this is not the case at all. There simply is not enough wealth in the rich to make much of a difference for the poor. The math does not allow for fleecing the rich to pay for social programs. French Socialist Idiots (Fridiots) are now figuring this out as you can read about in a recent post by Mish. A quote from the article:, "“There’s no more room to raise taxes,” said Laurent Dubois, a professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris. “The French feel taxes are going up and purchasing power is going down. They voted for Hollande thinking they’d afford austerity; that the rich would pay. They realize now that that’s not possible. There aren’t enough rich people.”
“There’s no more room to raise taxes,” said Laurent Dubois, a
professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris. “The French feel taxes
are going up and purchasing power is going down. They voted for Hollande
thinking they’d afford austerity; that the rich would pay. They realize now that
that’s not possible. There aren’t enough rich people.”
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/10/hollandes-tax-everything-plan-blows-sky.html#2CjU8Uks3eEjmXbb.99
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/10/hollandes-tax-everything-plan-blows-sky.html#2CjU8Uks3eEjmXbb.99
“There’s no more room to raise taxes,” said Laurent Dubois, a
professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris. “The French feel taxes
are going up and purchasing power is going down. They voted for Hollande
thinking they’d afford austerity; that the rich would pay. They realize now that
that’s not possible. There aren’t enough rich people.”
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/10/hollandes-tax-everything-plan-blows-sky.html#2CjU8Uks3eEjmXbb.99
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/10/hollandes-tax-everything-plan-blows-sky.html#2CjU8Uks3eEjmXbb.99
“There’s no more room to raise taxes,” said Laurent Dubois, a
professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris. “The French feel taxes
are going up and purchasing power is going down. They voted for Hollande
thinking they’d afford austerity; that the rich would pay. They realize now that
that’s not possible. There aren’t enough rich people.”
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/10/hollandes-tax-everything-plan-blows-sky.html#2CjU8Uks3eEjmXbb.99
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/10/hollandes-tax-everything-plan-blows-sky.html#2CjU8Uks3eEjmXbb.99
“There’s no more room to raise taxes,” said Laurent Dubois, a
professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris. “The French feel taxes
are going up and purchasing power is going down. They voted for Hollande
thinking they’d afford austerity; that the rich would pay. They realize now that
that’s not possible. There aren’t enough rich people.”
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/10/hollandes-tax-everything-plan-blows-sky.html#2CjU8Uks3eEjmXbb.99
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/10/hollandes-tax-everything-plan-blows-sky.html#2CjU8Uks3eEjmXbb.99
Well DUH, bozos!! Why is it that you could not do the math beforehand? Why did you have to take the world down this corrupt path? This directly relates back to my prior posts on Americans who are just now waking up to the truth. There simply are not enough rich people to steal from in order to pay for transfer programs to the poor in order for politicians to buy their votes. It requires the fleecing of and the destruction of the middle class in order to do this. OBAMA KNOWS THIS and he always has known it. All socialists know this. So does every libertarian.
There is a major problem with Obama's plan to wipe out the US middle class. Poor people have generally found ways to be content being poor. They can remain poor indefinitely without it being too much of a problem as long as they can feed and breed. Besides, if they get angry all they can do is riot and throw rocks. But the American middle class is past that point and I think it will not devolve happily. Too many Americans work too many hours to just not care if they get impoverished by the heavy hand of government "wealth leveling". In addition, these same Americans are heavily armed. They are far from helpless and they will only take so much. It is not in the nature of the American worker to just lie there and take it forever.
Here is, one last time, one of my favorite links which is to a video of the "Battle at Kruger". I like this video so much because it shows a real life depiction of the herd vs. the predators. At the start of the video, the herd of water buffaloes is walking along calmly when the leader sees some lions resting in front of them. The lions see a young member in the herd. Sensing an easy meal, the lions run into the herd with a "shock and awe" attack. This produces the desired panic which the lions then use to pick out the young calf. They begin to kill it when the broader herd finally figures out that it has been routed by a few measly lions, each of which is only a fraction of the size of any adult herd member. Needless to say, the lions get their asses kicked hard once the herd remembers this simple fact.
And so, I fear, it shall be for the American middle class once they come across some catalyzing moment in the not too distant future.
Alcoa pulls back in line with EW model [AA]
In this post I indicated that my EW model expected Alcoa to take a breather after a nice run (which the model also predicted well in advance - you might find it interesting to go back through the Alcoa posts and check them out for yourself).
The overlay below shows what actually happened (chart section within the orange box) relative to the model (blue line). So next I expect a small bounce (it's not labeled below but it would be the short B wave) followed by final wave down (the C wave) before the pullback is complete. Once the pullback is complete then you will want to be in this one as it is really set up for a 3rd wave up that should.
Of course, it could all be a coincidence as well.
The overlay below shows what actually happened (chart section within the orange box) relative to the model (blue line). So next I expect a small bounce (it's not labeled below but it would be the short B wave) followed by final wave down (the C wave) before the pullback is complete. Once the pullback is complete then you will want to be in this one as it is really set up for a 3rd wave up that should.
Of course, it could all be a coincidence as well.
High probability that the S+P 500 has peaked for now.
In several fairly recent posts such as this one I have expressed my unpopular view that the S+P 500 is showing many technical signs of being significantly overbought and that a major reversal is coming soon. Today's S+P 500 update only serves to reinforce that view for me. I suspect that these 5 waves are an ending diagonal and that the top support line will break down soon followed by a breakdown of the bottom support line. The structure of these breakdowns, should they occur as my current model predicts, will have to guide where I think the model would take us from there.
From a fundamental perspective, the market has no real value. It is simply an indicator of how much confidence the herd has that the US government will be able to keep the Global Debt Ponzi plates spinning. All con games rely on confidence since there is nothing substantial underpinning their operation. So it is with the stock markets. When I read the news of late I see all the world leaders now working feverishly to do their own currency swaps to distance themselves from the dollar. I see the Saudis upset at Obama and his RINO counterparts such as McCain for their inability to herd the American people into yet another foreign war, this time in Syria. I see the Obama administration going after US and international banks. I see Obama's signature health care scam going down in flames at a level far deeper than a broken web site. I see great anger and angst of the American people against the administration. All of this is adding up to a significant loss of confidence at exactly the time when consumer confidence is hitting a very significant technical resistance point.
All of these things suggest that the stock market bull run is about to roll over. If that E wave breaks down through the 2 support lines as I suspect it will, your 401k will want to be in cash, folks.
From a fundamental perspective, the market has no real value. It is simply an indicator of how much confidence the herd has that the US government will be able to keep the Global Debt Ponzi plates spinning. All con games rely on confidence since there is nothing substantial underpinning their operation. So it is with the stock markets. When I read the news of late I see all the world leaders now working feverishly to do their own currency swaps to distance themselves from the dollar. I see the Saudis upset at Obama and his RINO counterparts such as McCain for their inability to herd the American people into yet another foreign war, this time in Syria. I see the Obama administration going after US and international banks. I see Obama's signature health care scam going down in flames at a level far deeper than a broken web site. I see great anger and angst of the American people against the administration. All of this is adding up to a significant loss of confidence at exactly the time when consumer confidence is hitting a very significant technical resistance point.
All of these things suggest that the stock market bull run is about to roll over. If that E wave breaks down through the 2 support lines as I suspect it will, your 401k will want to be in cash, folks.
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