While the fundamentals clearly do not control prices in real time,
there are such things as fundamentals that support asset prices and
prices eventually will synch again with those fundamentals.
Eric Parnell, CFA is a well followed contributor to Seeking Alpha and I think this article
is well worth a read. His "red alert" chart shows a huge delta and
continued divergence between reported earnings and share prices.
Corporations have been buying back their own fiat currency (AKA shares),
many of them using cheap debt to do it. This is not for the benefit of
retirees for sure; it is a short term way to pump the stock for the
benefit of company employees, especially those at the top, until
interest rates rise to the point of borrowing to buy stock is no longer
cheap. Then the share price deflates massively (look for massive
insider sales first) and share prices catch down to earnings.
I'll
just note for the record that since the 2015 earnings peak we have had 5
waved down. Maybe it's just a coincidence this time.
Tuesday, March 21, 2017
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