Elliott waves on Deutsche Bank [DB]

In this post I provided my first bottoming model ever on DB shares.  The post was meant to show how the news is often out of synch with share price movements but the wave count can provide a true view of what is going on when analyzed by someone with the proper Elliott wave experience.  Trust me when I tell you that this experience is not gained merely by reading the EW rules.  It requires years of intense practice for most people and intelligence does not seem to be the only factor involved with how good a person eventually becomes.  I believe that brain plasticity is just as important because what is really happening is that the brain is transformed into a pattern matching engine such that the nuances of a chart movement are resolved by the subconscious mind.  In other words, something akin to what Cypher described when looking at the complex screen of The Matrix.  OK, that's an oversimplification perhaps but when I look at my students struggling with the peaks and valleys of a chart I always feel some wonderment about why they can't see what seems so obvious to me.  Until, that is, I recall how many times I got it wrong for the first 2-3 years of my serious foray into the science of the Elliott wave principle.

In any case, that first DB post pulled the chart below from an article which was lamenting the state of Germany's largest bank.  I then added my EW analysis to it as shown below.  My succinct commentary at that time was, "I think the shares will bottom in the $10-$12 USD range and then see a massive and rapid move back up to $18.  Said again, that could be as much as an 80% gain for those who know how the Elliott wave principle works."

 

The red vertical line in the current snapshot chart below shows the exact date of my first post.  The exact bottom was $11.16, nicely centered in my target bottom price of $10-$12.  The subsequent bounce peaked earlier this year at around $21.  It was by any analysis, "a massive and rapid move back up to $18" and then some.  How could I possibly predict something like this with such precision?  Is it all really just dumb luck?  Again??  Really???

I invite you to carefully consider the data I have presented on multiple occasions.  To ignore the truth is to let herding instinct or pride hold us back from trading success.  Wall Street has been lying to us.  Their "fundamentals" are not really the fundamentals that move share prices because stocks, as I have explained for a very long time are inherently just another fiat currency with zero intrinsic value and therefore the instantaneous value of them is based on herd mood/emotions.  Elliott waves are the only known modeling technique for predicting human herding behavior.  How many times do I have to publicly call out the likes of Sam Collins or Jim Cramer in these pages to prove this point?  Even though the Elliott wave principle is based on probabilities and not on certainties, nothing else is anywhere near as granular or as accurate.

You will be quite unlikely to become an effective Elliottician on your own in anything less than a couple years of hard study.  And so while I think everyone should learn the Elliott wave principle I would advise against trading on the wave count of any novice.  The nuances are just too tricky and the risk management aspect of the system too easily discounted or overlooked.  But I have been doing this for a long time and If you want to receive my Elliott wave based market insights going forward you can do so month by month for $54.95 or you can set up a recurring monthly subscription payment for only $39.95.  In either case, payments are handled by Paypal which means I will never see your credit card and thus you have no risk of ever being overcharged by any means that some unscrupulous online vendors do when they have your card data.  Additionally, you can cancel at any time simply by disabling your subscription.  You are in full control.

I invite you to give my service a try.  Good luck in your trading.