What if the oligarghs whose debt Ponzi is in collapse gave a war to cover it up...

and everyone said FUCK YOU!!!

Way to go ladies of Ukraine, you have more balls than most guys I know.  You don't even have guns in your hands and you are doing this.  Imagine what it would be like if well-armed Americans were pressured into doing something we don't want to do?

Horns, baby.  Fuck 'em up with the horns.  They are lions in water buffalo clothing.  They predate upon us and they laugh about it behind closed doors.  They created this mess.  They brought down the twin towers.  They tried to turn the USA into a liberal nanny-police state.  I say Hell no.  If the ladies of Ukraine can resist forced tyranny, so should we be able to when our turn comes (and then some).

Tomorrow should be a significant down day. -225 points? More?

GE looks ready to put on a 3rd wave performance.  The chart is telegraphing a plunge soon.  Some will say it was due to Argentinean defaults but those really are kind of small to make the DJIA react very badly.  Anyway, I picked up a nice block of TZA yesterday (Wed) and I have my stops in place for a very small stop loss if I'm wrong about this chart.  But with all of the things I see going on, the odds are rapidly shifting to the short side and after such a big run the herd has to be thinking about that "20% correction" that many have been warning of.  So I expect a big correction and then a big vee style "I don't believe stocks can over go down and stay there" rally.  But that will be a large 2nd wave (very tradeable to the long side though!)  which will bounce to the 38.2% fib, maybe the 50, unlikely the 61.8 this time and then just fall off a cliff.

But that is months out there and we need to stay focused on profiting from the pullback that should be coming right now according to the GE wave count.  I don't think GE can go down in a vacuum.  If GE goes down, everything goes with it IMO.  Time will tell.

Genworth financial is now heading down into final BK plunge.

Genworth(less) Financial (GNW) was one of the over-leveraged, very weak players of the last collapse.  It will certainly not survive the coming "liquidity crisis" (aka "solvency reality").   Today it tried to paper over its insolvency by issuing "earnings" of 31 cents per share which is actually quite excellent sounding for a $19.... errr.... $14 stock.

If earnings are so great then why such a huge drop on such good SOUNDING news?  Well, for exactly the reasons I have been stating for the past 7 years: when you "buy" earnings using debt then you can look good for a long time whether you are Toyota or Genworth or GE.  But at some point the piper must be paid and the EW charts are telling us that the SOB is standing in front of us right now with his hand out.  He's saying "pay up bitches".

GNW will now decay very rapidly.  Why?  Because it is now in a 3rd wave down.  Expect the waves of pain to just keep coming and coming.  3rd waves do not provide any time to think or act.  The falling stock price will, in and of itself, make everyone fear the company.  Nobody will loan it anything nor will people want to do business with it because the word going around right now is that it is capital impaired.

But we already knew that!!  How?  Because of this statement from the above press release:"prompted a company review of whether its reserves are adequate".  They have to disclose this lest someone go to jail after the BK.  The simple truth is that they sold lots of "long term care" insurance to old people and now those costs are rising just as quickly as the people they insure get older.  Folks, 90% of your medical bills come in the last 10% of your lifetime.  GNW knew this and they did it anyway because it was quite profitable while the Ponzi lasted.  We also know they have an Australian mortgage division and those homes are 3x overpriced even though nobody thinks they are in a bubble.  That means GNW loans a lot of money to home debtors who fully intend to walk away in case of 2008 redux.  There is no penalty for doing so short of losing your 2% down payment.

Look at their options.  They have Jan 2015 $2 puts going for a few pennies.  I don't know if Jan 2015 is enough time for it to BK but I do know that 3rd waves collapse a lot faster than most people think possible. I also know that credit can lock up in a very rapid time frame and nobody will see it coming because they are too busy looking at distracting things that do not matter.  Talk about your asymmetrical bet.  I think I will spend $200 maybe $300 bucks and and take an educated risk in order to chance making a fat killing in terms of percentage gain over the next 5 months.

GOP vote to sue Obama for exceeding his constitutional powers.

Finally a move that makes sense as the GOP will now try to let the courts decide about Obama's oversteps.  I think this is a good move and far better than impeachment.  Impeachment is, in the minds of the American people, still linked to the Clinton fiasco where he was pursued with impeachment over the lies he told about his relationship with Lewinski.  That whole thing was a witch hunt that never should have happened.  Who cares who the pres screws in his spare time (or even in the oval office for that matter)?  I care whether the guy is a crook to the American people, and that's it.

While there is some risk that the courts will side with Obama, I think the pendulum has swung back away from extreme liberalism enough whereby Obama will likely lose.  I think the courts care what the people think now that the debt Ponzi is entering the collapse years.  People with pitchforks and AR-15s should not be ignored.  The courts really should not wait until someone brings a lawsuit IMO.  That leaves the burden of taking down constitutional usurpers on the backs of people and oftentimes individuals.  The courts should have the duty of rendering opinions in real time which are binding.  That doesn't mean appeals can't be filed but it does give a good idea of where the courts are leaning in a matter.

So the courts no longer get to sit idly by while Obama finishes the destruction of the constitution that GW "911 building collapse" Bush and those who came before him started.  Again, the fault is not one man, it is a string of actions by a string of men who all answered to a higher power: the money elite.  So blaming Obama as the sole instigator of executive treason is not fair.  However, he is still a treasonous sell out in his own right and in his own dealings with the country so it's of little value trying to defend him for being just one of many.  Obama may laugh it off in public but he knows this was a smart move by the GOP.  The taxpayer is demanding better treatment and soon the government will be needing the taxpayer more than ever so the taxpayer must be thrown a bone in this matter.

Double talk and misdirection from Goldman Sachs.

If you wonder how people become so confused about what's really going on, look no further than the main stream media which rarely if ever make money but which the likes of globalist Rubert Murdoch continually invest in for some reason.  By spending their money on these businesses, globalists are investing not in news producers but in control mechanisms.  By mixing a little bit of truthy sounding stuff in with a bunch of complete bullshit, they sway people's thinking without the people even knowing it.  After hearing this shit several times it begins to flow out the mouths of people who lack well honed critical thinking skills (which is, sadly, the majority of any population).

In today's story, Goldman Sachs is out explaining why Target and Wal-Mart are now in "slow decline".  Of course the article conflicts with itself and jumps around a lot in order to send a message without actually proving anything.  Their overarching claim is that "The heyday of big box discount retailers is over.".     OK, I'll bite.  Let's see how they defend this statement.  Of course they cannot defend it with logic so the first statement is just a shoot from the hip guestimate of what is going on: "consumers appear more focused  on some combination of value and convenience".  Yeah, that's it.  Wal-Mart that is open 24/7 and which carries everything from food to paint to hardware to clothing to guns to tires and batteries, etc. is no longer convenient.  Oh, and Wal-Mart doesn't have value prices now.  BULLSHIT!  The last big screen I bought came from Wal-Mart because it was $100 lower than everyone else.  It is asinine to imply like that  Wal-Mart has no value prices.

Then they shift gears because you see, it's the online retailers like Amazon with free shipping that is eating Wally's lunch.  That's the ticket, man, that's value and convenience for you.  Of course, the "analyst" simply overlooks the fact that AMZN is losing money each quarter now.  So again, BULLSHIT!  Business has not just shifted from Wally World to online AMZN.  Both are hurting.  And it'snot just Wal-Mart.  Both Wal-Mart and Target have recently shot their CEOs.

OK, then comes another broad statement completely not supported by any data, "Dollar stores, drug stores, and warehouse clubs "are taking share from broad-assortment retailers".  Even if true (which they conveniently provide no data or links to support), how does that wash against their main theme that it's about convenience and value?  Dollar stores suck relative to Wal-Mart.  They are not open 24/7 and, like Ross clothing stores, they carry only leftovers and closeouts.  You never know if they will have what you want.  Maybe there is some value there but that is the polar opposite of convenience.  I have been to dollar stores about twice in my life, never finding what I was looking for.  Wal-Mart always has the goods.  That is convenience.

OK, now time for yet another off-theme tangent by the Goldman Sach's jerks: "Meanwhile, drugstores like CVS and Walgreens have spent years expanding their assortments to include groceries, high-end cosmetics, clothing, and accessories."  CVS has convenience but zero value.  They are way overpriced on everything.  I never go there unless I need a specialty item or a prescription.  So again, the truthy sounding statement of "combined quality and value" is not borne out by facts.

Then another jump to talk about costco: "Costco's strategy of very low mark-ups and quality over quantity also appeals to consumers today."  Quality over quantity??? Really?  You have to buy a value pack at costco in order to get any pricing break.  Besides didn't they say earlier that "The heyday of big box discount retailers is over"???  Costco is the poster child for that sector!  So how can it be kicking ass on wally world and target when its very business mode is "over"??  Can you see the blatant double talk and wild contradictions?

OK, but now in their infinite wisdumb, Goldman analysts will tell us the secret to Wal-mart and Target's recovery: "To improve business, Goldman says, these retail behemoths need to adapt to accommodate changing consumer habits.  That includes investing in e-commerce and smaller stores, such as Wal-Mart's Neighborhood Market concept."  Gawd, this is ridiculous.  Don't they know that Wal-Mart has had an online store with free shipping to your local Wal-Mart?  This has been around for a few years now.  And nice of Goldman to say that Wal-Mart should create smaller stores like the ones they are already doing with their Neighborhood Markets.  Gee Goldman, for all that sage insight and advice, can we pay you a big fee of some kind? 

So let me net it out: ALL retailers are struggling.  Wal-Mart, Target, Amazon, Whole Foods, you name it.  You can't always tell by their stock charts because not all companies are very honest in their reporting.   They make things look far better than they really are in order to goose the share price.  IF you want to know which are which, review the terms of the CEO's compensation package.  If there is a strong focus on getting paid only if the share price goes up, expect share price to go up regardless of the underlying fundamentals.

And now I will repeat why all retailers are struggling but first I will tell you what is NOT causing it:

• It is not caused by some major mass paradigm shift towards some imaginary nirvana of convenience and value.  Wal-Mart is already about as close to that as you can get and so is Amazon and both are under duress right now.
• It is not caused by not understanding customer buying habits.  These companies know what customers are thinking before the customers do.  That is the benefit of big data and both of these companies are big into big data.
• It is not because once in a blue moon something is not in stock.  Both Amazon and Wal-Mart are generally excellent about having what you need when you need it.  
• Why is GE's IPO not going off at the expected price?  Why is Coke falling like a $2 hooker on payday?  Why is Boeing flying into the ground?  Do they all need more convenience and value too?  Do they all need new marketing slogans and catchy jingles?

  The Goldman Sachs view is full of shit because the analysts suffer from head up ass syndrome.  There is one, and only one, thing that cuts across all industries at the same time: credit deflation.  That and that alone is to blame for the collapsing sales.  As the credit portion of the money supply continues to collapse, the speed of collapse will accelerate and we will begin to hear about "contagion".  There is no real contagion, there is only mass insolvency which has been papered over for a long time.  It will come home to roost and then we'll see if some catchy marketing jingle reignites the will of the consumer to consume even more on debt.  The debt Ponzi is in the collapse phase, Goldman.  Get it right or shut the fvck up.

Coke shares are bleeding out.

This does not look like your normal "buy the dip" pullback so far.   Still, it's early in the game with major indices still at or near record highs.  But a major name like KO bleeding out like this tells me the sellers are now in control.

I was too early on counting TWTR's dead cat bounce out...

In this post I mentioned directly and linked to other posts where I had been expecting an a-b-c dead cat bounce for TWTR back to the $45 range since that is the level of the 38.2 fib.  I wrote: "I hate to throw out price targets like this but if pressed I would call it $26 for 5 of C. The subsequent short covering rally should bounce back to perhaps $45."

Well I waited for awhile and it seemed like the 23.6% fib was all that it was going to get, which I called "pathetic".  In other words, it was not expected.  After adjusting my expectations that the dead cat was already in, I failed to see the potential for today's 20% upward spike.  I was just not patient enough and not trusting enough in the Elliott wave principle.

But this is not a buy signal.  It is just short covering.  It has now recovered to the level of the prior 4th as well as the 38.2% fib.  Sure, it could go up to the 50% fib or even the 61.8% fib.  But if it does, short the Hell out of it because it is going to turn right back down into 2015 if not sooner.