John Mauldin was slow, but not stupid.

I mocked John Mauldin for many years in these pages.  Here is an example from 2012.  His take was that everything would be OK but we might have some "turbulence" or "slow recovery" which he roughly referred to as "a muddle through economy".  I sent him several direct emails pointing out his folly, none of which he ever returned although his staff personally notified me that the email had been forwarded to him.

However today he has finally fully woken up and we know that because he's finally quoting vonMises as the lead in to his periodical email newsletter.



While it is just common sense, everyone seems oblivious to the fact that you cannot live on debt forever and that at some point there must be a day of reckoning.  I urge each of you to take this with great seriousness.  It is beyond anything that any living person has ever experienced and it will scar the world in deep but not completely predictable ways.

They cannot fix this. Nobody can.  There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.  No means no.  Trump only made the bubble bigger.  Biden is just a figurehead.  He doesn't know what day it is.  Neither of them matter.  Why?  Because there is NO means to avoid the final collapse.

When that collapse happens there will be supply chain interruptions.  There will be hunger and there will be death from starvation right here in the USA.  The reason this will happen is that the government's fake money won't be able to buy anyone's labor and a country which has outsourced its civic responsibility to government is not going to suddenly change.  Over time it will change but only after the stench of dead bodies is too big to ignore.

It doesn't have to be mad max to be very very bad.  Small problems left un-greased with new cash can quickly turn into big ones.  A stitch in time does save nine, but if your needle and thread suddenly disappear then who can make the needed repairs? 

We must all become our own backup plan because government cannot and thus will not be there for us.  Now is the time to think about this and plan for it.  Importantly, KNOW where your food will be coming from and I don't mean costco or safeway.   They will be crippled by credit default in the supply chain.  It's more than obvious.

You have been warned.  Don't just sit there like a dummy.  Move your ass.

German minister officially denies that debt will reach a crisis

As we all know, nothing's for sure true until the official denials begin rolling in.  And in Germany we are seeing the official denials.  This is like top ticking the German debt market.  When Deutsche Bank goes bankrupt the whole system of fake paper assets is doomed.  Globally.  But real assets like gold and silver will not be doomed, they will hickup and then zoom.

This is what happens to all debt base ventures

They skyrocket to incredible heights and do stupidly uneconomical things simply because they can, and then they go bankrupt when all the bad debt finally over takes them.  They do it with a tear in their eye but with a smirk on their lips.  And whatever complicit pension funds bought their debt simply lose the money of pensioners.

What a liberal consumption before production fucking scam debt based consumption is.

Dubai Burj Khalifa goes into liquidation.

Are Elliott waves predicting a new and even stronger wave of covid-19?

Since Elliott waves are not part of the stock market but rather part of the universe, they should work equally well on any chart.  Most people will show you stuff after it happened.  I'm showing you the prediction model before it has even turned up.  When blue B=blue A the model says that a corrective wave (i.e. counter trend) has occurred.  This is not an open ended model.  If the C wave grows longer than the A wave (i.e. C= 1.236*A instead of C=A) then the odds begin to fall rapidly. When C gets larger than 1.236*A the odds fall off a cliff.  There is a reason I waited until now you show you this and that is because C is just shy of A right now.

I want to say this again because it's so important in really internalizing what is going on in our universe.  This dotted line is going straight down.  Nobody in their right mind should say "oh yeah because of some theory this will reverse upward and make a new higher high.  Out of all the infinite possible outcomes for the future, I'm choosing exactly one.  Others a POSSIBLE for sure, but this one is by far the most likely given the Elliott wave model I have applied to it.  Without benefit of the Elliott wave model, the odds of correctly predicting a reversal here are astronomically against me.  It will be fun to see how this Elliott wave experiment turns out.