[GILD] update [free]

In my first post ever on Gilead Sciences I went head to head against Sam Collins, a well known Wall Street trader and OptionZone.com's chief technical analyst.  It was not the first time I called him out publicly and won.  Sam seems like a nice guy so it's not personal.  But when I see these pundits strutting around with bios on NASDAQ.com and other pulpits of punditry I simply must say something when their advice violates the Elliott wave principle because I am pretty darned sure who is going to win and who is going to lose in that kind of a showdown.

Here is the chart I presented:


Here is actual to date.  I did call the true motive peak but everything since looks corrective 3-3-5 (expanded flat) in nature and so I'm officially rescinding my mania chart call because I no longer have the Elliott wave evidence to back that viewpoint.  But those who sold based on my model saved themselves a walk back of more than $30.  If this puts in a lower low than the recent low then the odds of a much deeper retracement - to $60 - is opened up.  But for now I would not be short on this ticker.

This is the kind of crap that goes down when the people are disarmed.

Lots of celebrities around the world seem to get miracle transplants just in the nick of time even though their names appear far down on official organ transplant recipient lists.  Remember how Steve Jobs got on not one list but two based on the fact that he had access to a private jet which meant he could quickly go where a liver might suddenly/conveniently show up?  No, you probably don't recall that but I do.  I remember thinking, gee, is his private jet really any faster than a commercial airliner? 

Bottom line is that Jobs was having a very hard time finding a liver and he was getting sicker at an exponential rate when suddenly, magicakally a liver showed up that was just f-ing perfect for him and it extended his life by a very significant 2 years.

All we are told about the source of his new liver was that "On March 21, 2009, a young man in his mid-twenties was killed in a Mid-South car crash, and his organs were made available."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2065888/Revealed-How-Steve-Jobs-life-saved-liver-taken-car-crash-victim-surgeon-reveals-time-spent-patient.html#ixzz4E8jBBP3p

 

All I can say is how convenient.  Not only in the nick of time but also apparently a perfect match for Mr. Jobs.  What do you think the odds of this happening honestly are?  How about slim to none.

 

Do I believe this is what really happened?  Well, since everyone is entitled to their opinion, no I don't believe it and I did not believe it at that time.  

Oh I know it sounds very conspiratorial.  But the evidence is leaking out.  And how is it leaking out?  That's right, the US government is doing a tell-all about it.  The US has known about the existence of Chinese organ harvesting for a long time and we would be foolish to think that the US elite don't have their own version of it (perhaps being a major customer of the Chinese system) but now that the global economy is in shambles the organized criminals in governments are beginning to rat each other out in order to try to gain the confidence of their own people.  

I tell you truly, there is nothing that greedy and immoral men would not do to each other in order to attain and keep power and wealth.  This is why the common man must do his part to keep big governments honest and the starting point for ALL of it is to become armed and able to defend oneself should such self defense from anyone, foreign or (more likely) domestic, become necessary.

 

How many poor, unarmed Chinese people do you think know that their son/daughter was stolen and then used for spare parts or sold into the sex trade for use by the elite?  They are powerless to do anything about it.  You might be rolling your eyes that guns can change any of this but then of course you would be ignoring the facts.  Gun ownership and the belief that every person has the right to self defense from ANY attacker, no matter their title or prestige or money... this is what saved the life of that young man in the link.  This and nothing else.  Guns in the hands of law abiding honest people are the ONLY thing that worry a big government.

Dallas police murders.

I've been out of touch with the news all last week up in Virginia working on the "new" boat but I did hear from one of the locals about the tragic shooting of multiple police officers resulting in 5 of their numbers dead.  Very sad. At the same time, not that difficult to predict either.  In fact, long time readers of this blog will know that on several occasions I warned the police that their heavy handed tactics of treating the people as if their lives and property didn't matter would be punished just as soon as the debt-driven prosperity began to collapse to the point where people who were once hopeful would lose hope.  At that point the gloves would come off.  Well, the gloves are off.

I want to say again to all you police and law enforcement people out there: if you fuck with the bull long enough, sooner or later you will get the horns.  What happened in Dallas is exactly the lesson of the battle at Kruger.  The LEOs fucked with the herd when the herd was well fed and the lack of violent reaction over time was misinterpreted as weakness.  The truth is that the herd simply saw it as a reasonable trade off.  The LEOs would abuse and kill for their own purposes a small percentage of the population and the herd would do nothing because it cared more about maximizing the otherwise prosperous times.

I hate the fact that these killings are random.  We probably lost some good, honest police officers there while other SOB cops that actually deserve some street justice of their past offenses against good people were not affected by this event.  Again, very sad.  But if that aspect of this incident is all that we focus on then how can we ever have any chance at understanding it with the goal of preventing like occurrences?

The knee jerk reaction is to go round up all the guns in the hands of the private citizens.  I'm telling anyone with the sense to see it that this is just a bad move, period.  I am no criminal but if you want to start a war with me by trying to disarm me then don't think I won't come out swinging!  We are free people, not your subjects.  We must agree to abide by any rules imposed; we cannot be coerced.  And it will remain that way as long as we have guns and ammo.  So anyone who tries to change that becomes my enemy.  Is it really that difficult to understand?

Here is more wisdom for those with ears to hear: police look like bad asses when they breach a house at 3am in full body armor and carrying every kind of gun that the people can buy for them.  Yep, when they encounter sleeping people in bed, the police are really tough.  They are quite tough when handling old ladies too.  But 5 of them went down this week just like any of us common folk have when the police begin blasting away.  There's nothing special about police and in fact in many cases they have turned into thugs and bullies.  This needs to change and fast else we will see more and more crazy people doing more random targeting of cops going forward.  Police will not change this by becoming more heavy handed!  That will only give more support to the cop killers.  Police MUST offer the olive branch to the people and then build trust in their communities.  Nothing else will work.

Uh-Oh. Overpriced piece of glass fails to sell at auction.

During inflationary times people will buy almost anything.  Why?  Because they can afford to.  At least they think they can.  It's the old human failure of extrapolating the present into eternity.  Why worry about tomorrow when the living is so easy today?

When young children witness a train passing by they look upon it in awe.  The train is so big!  And it's so long!  Daddy, does this train wrap around the Earth and to the moon and back?  It must!!  We've been watching it for what seems like a long time and we still can't see the end of it!

Yes, we adults look down, pat one of the children on the head and then think about how nice it was to be so young and naive.  Of course the train doesn't last forever; it's foolhardy to extrapolate the present endlessly into the future.  As childish as all this seems all adults are guilty of behaving just like that child at some point during adulthood.  Some even make a career of it.

Additionally, if the train has been going past you for a long time, would it not be wise to at least begin to suspect that the end of it might soon be coming around the corner?  Would it not be prudent to think about making plans to board once it arrives instead of waiting for it to pull up to the platform before gathering up the kids?

The liberal inflationary train has been running on a regular schedule for about 50 years now.  We see normal people of middle or upper middle class means buying all manner of goods that they don't need.  Many are in serious debt as they do it.  Why not do it?  After all, the money train will last forever, right?  A trap the richer class falls into, especially near the end of the run, is to bid up art, jewelry, and fine goods.  The items purchased might be 5% better/nicer than something else but they command 2x to 20x more in price.   Additionally, they eat out at fancy restaurants all the time living hand to mouth on their big salaries yet never seem to be able to pay the bills down and certainly never bother to save anything.  The more foo-foo and hardly edible the meal, the more far-gone the sucker is.  At some point in all this people actually value the ambience of the restaurant above the food.  And they pay 3x more for the ambience. Again, the attitude is that the money train will always run so let's live life fully right now.

That has been the American experience for many people for a long time now.  So long in fact that it has become the default behavior.  You are treated as kind of a fool if you don't behave like that.  Yeah, I bought island property and a boat to go with it recently (OK, it was actually a partnership on the boat...) but I only felt justified doing it because my house is paid off, I have no other debt and I had savings in hand to pay for these things.  I drive a modest vehicle which, being a 2001 model year, has seen better days.  I avoid debt however possible because I know that the gravy train isn't endless and it has been rolling by for such a long time now that the risk is elevated that it will end.

And so I finally get to the point of this post which is the signs to look for that the herd is getting scared, losing confidence in the ability of the con men to keep this puffed up economy rolling along.  Today's evidence is the inability to auction off the world's largest uncut diamond.

Putting something to auction is not cheap or easy.  You have to telegraph well in advance and make sure that likely buyers are present.  So it does not behoove one to purposely overprice their goods which means that the low bids offered were not in line with what the diamond owner had been led to believe the glass would sell for.

This is a warning sign IMO.  A warning sign that the easy money is slowing down at all levels.  I expect to see more and more of same as problems continue to grow in the EU and as the herd gets more and more nervous.

Stop putting money into IRAs, 401k, etc. Government will steal it at some point.

As I have been warning for many years, government promises aren't worth spit.  As long as the debt can pile up and be used by politicians to remain relevant by bribing people for their loyalty, governments keep promising more and more free stuff. At some point governments can no longer rob Peter to pay Paul (take on more debt in order to pay for past promises and obligations).  When this happens they just default. Deadbeat politicians lie like Hell and cannot be trusted! 

Today's proof of this is in Spain where Mish writes that the Spanish social security  system will go broke in 2018.

Spain is no different than the USA, it's just at a massively smaller scale.   But the same events will eventually befall both countries in the fullness of time.  There is no escape from this because without the ability to rack up debt to pay the bills, the US government cannot pay the social security claims.  What cannot be paid will in fact not be paid. Being the USA does not change this...

Posession is 9/10ths of the law of the jungle in any crisis

Brexit created some panic in the UK and as a result, some UK asset managers "froze" withdrawals.  Well geez Louse, whose money is it anyway?  How can an asset manager just make such an arbitrary edict?

Well, who cares WHY, such proof is enough to know that they CAN.  And so can the US government, the US banks and pretty much anyone else who might owe you something.  These are not good times to trust anyone which is probably why gold and silver are on an absolute tear.