[JDST] update

In the backlink I modeled a higher bounce for JDST but then a fall to a lower low in the $7 range before putting in a strong bottom.  The chart from that post is below.




As you can see from the real time update, while reality did not match the wave shape exactly, the price target for bottoming was spot on.  Of course, there are many ways for the EW patterns to play out and above was only one of several legit possibilities for putting in that 5th wave down.  But now we see what looks like a WC B wave (in other words, a B wave formed by a falling wedge C wave - C of B as it were) which
a) did not create a lower low
b) broke back up into the channel with a gap and is now testing the top rail.

If this is a break out ready to happen then it will occur with a 3rd wave up.

Below is the move off the ~$7 bottom.  Folks, this does not look good for JNUG.  I just hope that it does not gap up on Monday so I have time to unload JNUG and hopefully get a small price bump on it.  We do have the chance that this will C wave its way all the way down to $7.80 in order to fill that gap so be watching for that as well (i.e. a move to the 50 fib).  I will certainly dump JNUG if this happens and most likely flip to the dark side.  I have to go with the wave count that I see, not the one EWI tries to convince me of.

BTW, IFF EWI is going to be correct then this should collapse below the lower rail again on Monday AM.  It should not meander or trickle downward.  Meandering = corrective meaning that the real trend for JDST is likely up.  These are the things to watch for on Monday IMO.

Finally caught a bit of time for more gold chart study [ABX]

The new job is super technical, super diverse in information that needs to be absorbed and super aggressive in expectations.  In other words, a welcome challenge.  However, because of this I just have not had time to look at charts in the multidimensional way that I like to.  But since I am highly focused on trying to play the coming massive bounce in miners I carved out time today to go back over my notes, prior posts, and current chart.  As usual, my focus is in determining the risks associated with a given bet.  What I see as a major risk is a potential final sell off to really capitulate the M+M longs in the next 2 months.

EWI is saying we are in an a-b-c gold bounce right now but nothing that has been happening in the gold and silver charts looks all that motive to me and, while hopeful that they would be right, I'm now beginning to lean toward the opinion that they are in fact wrong.  It would not be the first time that I have disagreed with them.  Early on in my following of them, they won most of these arguments so I started getting the feeling that it was dumb to argue with them.   More of late, I have been winning the debates.  I also know that the clairvoyance itself of EW counters itself comes and goes in waves and I have observed it in myself as well.  Sometimes I can casually look at a chart and the clear and obvious wave count jumps out at me, and then that count plays out almost perfectly. Other times, it's like I have never seen a chart before and I have to aggravate to get any kind of count and then the correctness falls dramatically and I get stopped out way too often (at a small "ante" loss each time mind you).

EWI thinks that the M+M bust since 2011 was just A of C and that the A wave is done and we are working on a big B bounce right now.  I think the decline since 2011 has been too powerful for that to be the case.  I think the 90% decline of GDXJ during that time suggests that the recent selling cannot just be the A wave.  If so, what happens during C, does GDXJ go negative?  EWI is looking at the price action of gold and silver only, they never mention anything about the miners, only mentioning that some will go BK during the final wave.  But it more seems that the entire mining industry would collapse to nothing at their expected $700-$900 gold price.

Because of these reasons, I think that the next big rally for M+M will not be a "B" wave, but rather a new bull market.  In other words, I'm thinking Avi will turn out to be right here.  But we never did get down to Avi's "95 to 105" GLD target.  Additionally, the bounce since the bottom has been corrective and the big drop leading to the bounce has always smelled like a 3rd (3 of 5) to me.  So the implication is that ever thing since Dec 2014 was a 4th of 5 wave and wave 5 of 5 down plays out over the next few months.

This is my current working theory (again) and is largely driven by my W3 indicator as shown on Barrick Gold (ABX).  Here is the backlink and below is the chart I gave there.  As you can see from that model, I believed at that time that there was one more wave down coming, again based in large part on my proprietary W3 indicator.  But then EWI called a bottom in gold and silver and we did begin to get some recovery so I wondered if I was wrong.  W3, after all, is not part of the original EW principle.




Below is the current 240 minute zoom in.   Blue 1 below corresponds to red 1 above. I think everything since the Dec W3 low was likely a 3-3-5 wave which just peaked and that is a corrective wave known as flat correction.  I will quickly change my tune if this falls back to around $12.40 and then reverses upward to a higher high because that would represent a 5 wave move up and a 3 wave pullback and then a higher high into wave 3 or C up.

I have tightened my stops way up on JNUG and I suggest everyone use similar caution.  Now then, if I am right about this then the final drop to ~8 (five waves down is the real thing to look for of course) will be a major bottom and the minimum bounce will be to the $14 range from there and that would be major percentage gains in the largest gold miners.  The juniors (GDXJ) should see $18 or less in that case and again, major percentage gains should follow.  We should know very very soon which way this is going but the winners will be those who were patient, who used stops at the right places to mitigate risk, and who waited for EW-defined entry points before putting cash into the bet.

More dirty cops going down for their lack of humanity

My God.  In the course of 12 months we have gone from a situation where cops kill people every day like it was nothing and were then completely protected by "the system" to a situation where cops are getting charged for their crimes on an almost weekly basis.  As this article says, a signal is being sent.

This is playing out just as I predicted it would.  Cops got used to a two speed legal system.  They got used to being able to carelessly beat other human beings as if they were practice punching bags.  They actually believed that they were our masters.  All I can say is that the water buffalo aren't going to take it any more and the LEOs are going to get the horns.  And it's happening for exactly the reasons I said it would: out of fear by the elite that they either throw their centurions under the bus or bad things will transpire.

And you know they are going under the bus in this case because one of the charges preferred by the DA was "Depraved Heart Murder".  Well that pretty much sums up the treatment of police upon the people IMO.  The article states, "depraved heart murder alleges the suspect actions were predicated by recklessness – and not caring about that recklessness – rather than intent.  The Legal Information Institute, part of Cornell University Law School, describes the charge as “killing someone in a way that demonstrates callous disregard for the value of human life.  “For example, if a person intentionally fires a gun into a crowded room, and someone dies, the person could be convicted of depraved heart murder.”  Another way of putting it is “wanton indifference to the consequences and perils” of a “reckless act”, as judge Charles Moylan Jr wrote in 1981. Moylan added that depraved heart murder “is just as blameworthy, and just as worthy of punishment, when the harmful result ensues, as is the express intent to kill itself”."

Well, even the dumbest, most steroid pumped brute of a cop is going to be getting this message.  You can't treat humans like they were trash without being held liable for it later on.  Period.

Of course the higher ups did not slap these charges on their centurions until the herd self organized and began tearing Baltimore to shreds.  As I always said, the changes will come not because anyone suddenly because honorable but rather out of fear of not making the required course changes.  And the herd is only acting up now because it feels like the prosperity for middle and lower classes is gone.  So it feels it has nothing to lose by acting up.  The elite have two choices: make visible change or watch a relatively small riot spread into outright armed revolt.  Don't think for a second that all these riots are having no effect on the elite. 

Pretty soon some cop or other lower level elite boot-licker (which is what all corrupt cops really are) is going to get in trouble for his actions and he is going to spill his guts about something he wasn't supposed to know in order to buy his way out of the consequences of his actions.  This is just like the fall of any organized criminal cabal.

[GREK] update

In the backlink I was modeling a bottom soon in coming.  That model is below.




Here is the actual.  It put in a short stroke E of 4 and then moved down 5 waves to find a bottom.  Just a few percent above where I modeled it likely would reverse.   Keep in mind that Greece was supposed to have run out of money by now.  The chart was telling me not to believe it.  Please read the backlink for the full story but once again Elliott waves provide uncanny results.  And let's not forget that my model also predicted a reversal of GREK when it was on the rise before.  EW are not a crystal ball but they can be pretty incredible in practice.   Of course, it's always about odds and triggers, not certainties.  Just like any other form of gambling.

[ANF] update

Here is one of the first posts I did on Abercrombie and Fitch.  Needless to say I was quite bearish.  Below is the model I provided.




Below is actual, down ~50% from my bearish call.  Just sayin'.  It's possible it will find support at $18 but it will not hold it if the whole market rolls over.

[LL] update

The backlink model is below.





Actual (shown below) is following the model pretty closely.  I smell bear trap ready to be sprung in the next couple weeks.  Too many shorts can't read a stock chart and they think LL is going to zero because of all the news that has been reported on it.  The wave that just finished could be the end of the selling or it could just be 1 of 5 with an eventual bottoming in the $20 range at which time I suspect a wild ass short squeeze to ensue.  The loved it at $120 and they will hate it at $20 but the bounce target remains the level of the prior 4th which is $60.  The lower they take it, the harder they will get hurt when it reverses.

[JNUG] threat model

Notice how the recent peak did not move back up into the range of blue 1.  This means it could still be blue 4.  And now we have seen a valid HT form, throw over on the E wave and then come crashing back down into the channel with gusto.  If you must hold this, sell the breakdown below the lower rail.  Another likely sell point would be a kiss of the upper rail that cannot break out.  One more wave down would complete a motive series and I suspect it would be a failed 5th at this point.  This crap since March has not been motive, looks very corrective.  Be careful, the percentages involved are significant.