[UVXY] update

At the backlink we had the model below along with the commentary,  "But the aggregate subconscious mind of the herd, i.e. its herding instinct as read by the Elliott wave model, tell me that no matter what the fed says, the market will find a way to make bad news out of it.  The most obvious way this could be expressed would be for an initial DJIA move up into or on the news followed by an intraday reversal which would signal that ~1000 points were about to be trimmed from the DJIA."


Today was fed decision day and of course despite having told everyone earlier this year that she was worried about income inequality, the recent market taper tantrum scared the crap out of her and so she quietly tried to leave rates alone. 

But instead of rejoicing at the news, the market did an intraday reversal and this is well reflected in the dramatic movement of UVXY which dipped ever so momentarily into the mid 30s before closing the day in the low 40s during the normal trading hours but then pushing into the 45 range during the extended trade.  The action is shown below in the 15 minute log scale chart of UVXY.  That is a unicorn tail IMO and is thus likely a significant bottom.  I was in class all day so I missed out on the ability to double down on the small UVXY position that I was riding bareback (no stops due to limited position size and firm belief in my count).  It is unusual (to say the least) that I gamble without stops but I have been in all day classes the past couple days and I did not want to get shaken out at the bottom for the position that I got filled in the $44 range yesterday.

I count 5 up from the lows on this chart and if that count is correct then it is the EW signal of a trend change.  Thus, I model that the markets will begin to sell off again, perhaps starting sometime tomorrow but then eventually shedding more than 1000 points on the DJIA to 15300 or below during the next wave down.

In other words, I still believe that the herd will find some reason to hate the fed's decision to kick the can down the road once again.  Fundamentally, one would say that leaving rates alone was good for the markets.  So when this begins to sell off again I think we really have to consider if there is any actual reality to fundamentals controlling the market.  If something is fundamental, it does not behave one way today and a different way tomorrow.  So if we do get the selling that my model suggests, we have to consider if there is a larger force controlling these things, namely, the mood of the herd and herding behavior as sensed and tracked by Elliott waves.