[S+P500] update

In the backlink the primary model was for immediate bearish action.



That model quickly went bust which is what you want any model to do if it is going to bust.  In other words, you want to know quickly.  We did not get the expected gap down and thus it immediately put suspicion on this model being correct. 

The chart below is what we have seen since then and to me it looks like a 4th wave HT has formed with large throwover on E of 4.  If this model is correct we might bounce in the AM to kiss the 50 fib from below but then in pretty short order we should fall back into the region of the HT and that will signal that wave 5 down has likely begun.

Anyone with a brain knows that recession is coming to the US.  It's hit the marginal players first.  China was the canary in the coal mine and we knew that the next to show it would be the commodity exporters of Australia and Canada.  Canada is now officially in recession and people are talking about the Aussies being on deck.  Who wants to be left holding empty promise paper assets in a recession or a depression?  Stocks literally have no intrinsic value else ORIG would not have a market cap that is 1/8 the book value.   This should be impossible to happen for a company that is making profits but it has happened.  Are you really sure that the DJIA can't possibly go sub 5k?  Sub 1K?  Where does that sentiment come from?  Water cooler chat?  Yahoo news?  Gut feeling?