Thursday, September 17, 2015

Crunch time for [LUV] model

The model from the backlink is below




Even with the continued DJIA rally, it hasn't changed.  However, it has been pushed right up to the limit as shown below.  The black arrow points to the fact that the model is now kissing resistance from below and thus has formed, at least for now, a declining double top.  If this breaks out then it stands a good chance of moving to the upper rail to form a rising wedge.  If this happens, I think it puts a nail in the EWI doom and gloom model and instead suggests that Avi's model will be correct.

However, it is not my primary model for this to happen.  I think the resistance will hold.  It may turn into a HT as shown but eventually I see it collapsing at least down to the green parallel.

The continued flight of LUV shares depends on low cost fuel and it remains to be seen how much longer they will receive that benefit.  If my commodity bottoming call back on the 28th of last month holds, LUV is already running on fumes.




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