[ORIG] should begin moving up very soon this week.

In the backlink I provided a high level chart that was at or very near 5 waves down.  In the chart below from that post I indicated that I thought the bottom was in: 5 of 5 of 5.



Then we got that wild spike up to $4.00 on the marvelous earnings report that Ocean Rig put in but it soon reversed and began back down.  But the reversal has looked corrective and the count so far is corrective so I'm going to have to reiterate my model that the 6th was indeed the bottom and now this is on the the way to $9.

The good news is that the shares are 3.31 today and if they go to 3.09 you know that the model was wrong.  Nobody is perfect, don't hope for it and you won't be disappointed.  Yes this could extend lower.  But that is not my primary model and the big money is not made by waiting for the big bounce.  It is made instead by trying to time the exact bottom and then having very tight stops if the model is wrong.  At least that is how I see it.

Now, I admit, this is a balsy call.  Some would even call it stupid.  After all, look how negative the headlines are with "Oil prices fall again as US Asia demand looks set to weaken.".  And there are no guarantees that my model is right but IMVHO, the so called fundamentals are actually a millstone about the necks of investors.

Fundamentally, this should not have a PE of 1.44.  That is not a fantasy forward PE folks, that is a real, in the books PE.  And price to book (PB) of .14?  This is a great depression number.  This is buying while there is blood in the streets.  Folks, the market cap on this company is 532 mn and net income available to common was 306mn.  Yes it has debt to the tune of 4.8 bn vs 821 mn cash.  But it is making a ton of money still even with oil in the dump because oil companies know that they have to keep drilling for the future even if we have a bit of an oil glut today. Those who stop drilling today won't have anything in the pipeline, no pun intended, when things pick back up.



But of course, all of that is what you would hear from a typical investment broker and it's makes a good story IMO and not much more.  What I see is the chart below and that is that after 5 down I should see 3 up at the very least and the bounce should be to the level of the prior 4th.  That's 9-10 folks.