Advice for new readers.

Well, it seems that my expected readership pullback is likely complete.  It is past midnight on Sun AM now so the stats screen capture below refers to page views on Saturday.



This is a significant new daily page hit record and it represents a gap up (i.e. not gradual) increase of perhaps 25% from the prior daily highs.  Humble though these numbers be, wave 3 up in my readership, I suspect, may have begun.

Well, time will tell if this can be sustained or not.  Perhaps it was just a fluke based on people googling about the 1 day 500+ point decline in the stock market.  Maybe they came across my premarket musings that the current model in DJIA going into that day lent itself to the arrival of the 500 point DJIA drop.  It is a signal which I've mentioned several times in these pages as being a good indication that panic has finally arrived to these Ponzi markets.

So for new readers, let me summarize.  People are a herding species.  Herds are made up of individuals who can each do any one of an infinite number of things.  But when in a herd people tend to act as a herd, as a group.  In aggregate, herds, well, herd.

Elliott waves were shown to be a good modeling tool for tracking the LIKELY moves of herds a long time ago, before there were computers, by a guy named Ralph N. Elliott.  The Elliott wave principle comes with rules, guidelines and several patterns that were found to be so common that they were given names.  You can educate yourself on all of this just by googling so I will not attempt any tutorial here.

But I will say that all of this is based on probabilities and not certainties.  If some people are better at this than others over long periods of time it's probably because they immerse themselves in it.  I find that just knowing the rules is not enough for the brain to pick out the most likely patterns on a consistent basis.  I also find that some people are naturals (not me - I have to trudge my way through) but that natural ability can be made up for with hard work (I'm that guy).  I think wave counters themselves go through waves of vision in wave interpretation.  I have never measured it but it seems to be true from experience.

If you want to learn something about this topic, go back through my posts and read them, click the links.  See where I went wrong and where I went right.  Create your own independent counts before you read mine or anyone else's.  If you do this enough times you will begin to see perceive important nuances that you would have glossed over before.

If you are a trader never forget that the stock market is a complete scam just like any gambling casino.  The odds are rigged against you because the market maker knows your trading history, your bids, asks and stops.  Never get too deep into any one position because I believe that the real volume in the markets is much, much thinner than the daily volume numbers would suggest.  The market makers have trading computers that trade back and forth with no fees.  It gives the impression of liquidity where much less exists.  This can dry up quickly in a crisis leaving nobody at the bid and everyone at the ask.  In any case, if you place trades based on waves counts, use stops based on those same wave counts.

If you are a boomer, know that the stock market was used to funnel the wealth of an entire generation into a government controlled trap known as 401k.  Wall street, corporations and government knew and know that it is a Ponzi scheme.  They played on everyone's hopes and dreams for a big retirement without having much money saved.  It's the age old play on people's greed telling them their money will work for them and other things that simply have no basis in real economics.  The stock market is not savings.  It is not a sure fire get rich if you only play scheme.  And it is certainly not a store of value.  The wild volatility proves this statement to be true.

Be forewarned, when the financial crisis rears it s head again this time it will be much bigger than before.  Understand that the elite views retired people as useless eaters since you are of no further economic value to them (i.e. you don't work anymore), you will be targeted for the fleecing. They used your money to backstop THEIR margin debt and they entered the market along side you.  Your money+their debt drove prices up much faster than if it were just real money alone bidding up the shares.   They have in this and in many other ways hollowed the markets out over time like a termite eating right up to the paint.  Thus the collapse is generally faster than the rise which is the basis of the old saying stair steps up, elevator down.  Madoff was a microcosm of our entire economy and that especially means our financial markets.

Please do read the fixed links at the top, especially the INSIGHT section.  If you do not understand the contents of the subsections of that link then the government will eventually give you a new name: Mark or Patsy depending on gender.  Think about it.

In any case, my site is currently free and it does not and never will have ads to plague your PC.  So feel free to tell your friends and family about it.  Welcome to my view of reality.