[RUSL] redux

I don't often post twice in the same day about the same chart but I think some may find this interesting.  Back in late 2014, EWI presented a chart to subscribers which predicted that a massive C wave was about to break out in the Ruble.  In other words, that the Ruble would suffer a collapse relative to the USD.  Here is the article which clearly shows that the Ruble weakness of late 2008 was an A wave, then a HT played out into late 2013 where they were predicting an E wave (and thus B in their chart) would form.  Here is the chart from that article:



History now shows that they were exactly right about this.  The Ruble/USD ratio skyrocketed right after the E of B wave was completed and you can see from the charts below that it was a 5 wave up formation (green 1-5) meaning C is complete.  It's difficult to find a good FX chart so I used Yahoo charts but in order to see the big picture on the left we lost the detail of green 4 on the right so I provided a somewhat zoomed in picture to show that move.  Bottom line: since purple b, green 1-5 completed and that means purple c is completed as well.

I do not know the bigger EW picture with respect to currencies but I do know that a-b-c is corrective somehow and that means that purple C was the top of that wave and now we at least get some kind of an a-b-c back down (i.e. forming a triangle of even larger degree) or we are now into a motive wave down for the Ruble.

I also see that the RUB/USD peaked around the start of the year which is just about the time that RUSL plunged to $10.  After the 5 rail bump move of RUSL to the April high we have now seen what could very well be an a-b-c pullback. Note that the rub/usd chart powered downward (stronger Ruble) into a clearly motive thrust and has since bounced to what looks to be close to a 38.2% fib retracement of that move.

I don't think it is a coincidence that RUSL peaked in mid April in locked step with the sudden strengthening of the Ruble.  If this analysis is correct, RUSL has just finished or is within a couple dollars of finishing wave two or wave B and is now likely to catch a bid up into at least the $52 range (where there is a gap to fill and the level of the prior 4th) and in fact the move could end up a good deal higher still.  Time will tell

Inverting a chart sometimes brings out other details and so check out the inversion below. I added a support line to the inversion and it shows us that the chart found resistance right at the confluence of two different trend lines.  I think the first evidence of reversal will be to take out the lower rail of that new wedge that I added.  Since this is likely to be a 3rd or a C we should be watchful for gaps which would tend to validate the thesis.