[UVXY] update [DJIA]

Per the backlink on these two charts, I:

• Believed that DJIA was finishing up a flat correction.
• Held UVXY over the weekend.

 I wrote:

"One of two things will most likely transpire here:

• DJIA will peak today and then begin to sell off hard on Monday, possibly with a gap down as indicated by the green rectangle on the daily chart below.
• DJIA will peak today or Monday and then do a controlled a-b-c retracement down to ~17820 and then move up into some larger structure which is currently not obvious to me but could turn out to be some sort of large rising wedge."

" ...While nobody knows the future, my DJIA model is telling me to hold UVXY over the weekend."

Clearly my model expected either a sell off in the DJIA from the start of trading (which did not happen) OR a peak on Monday and then a sell off to begin.  If the latter then we have to BOLO this as a correction.  But in either case the implication was that UVXY should catch a bid very soon.  

So I held over the weekend and actually decided to not trade at all today.  I didn't even look at the charts until after the close.  I was not using stops on UVXY because I modeled that it was so close to a reversal that it was worth the risk to ride bareback.  Remember, market makers have insider knowledge.  They get to see all our stops.  Most people don't understand that the market maker is not just pairing external buyers and sellers; they are gaming the system as a man in the middle.  Of course if they game it too hard then people will cry foul so the market makers have to be a bit careful but let's face it, there is no way of knowing who it was that actually dried up the bid, especially for short periods of time when sudden spikes or dips occur that just happen to take out all the stops.

In any case, this gamble paid off for me today as UVXY bottomed around 10am in the $10.70 range and then, with a nice motive wave shape, moved up for the rest of the day to kiss $12 again. 

What I think could turn out to be significant about this is the fact that the DJIA tried to rally at the open but then suffered an AM reversal, something I have always associated with a significant trend change.  Please review Friday's DJIA chart and then see the updated count on the 30 minute scale below.  Note how the DJIA peaked within the green target circle that I laid down on Friday.  I only point this out as evidence that I could indeed have the right world view in this model this time.

At this point, the UVXY strategy is dead simple: stops are very loosely placed at $10.68 and I will be adding to my current position on the next dip that I find.  Time is of some import here because if this model is correct then then very soon we should see a significant gap down in the DJIA and when the market sees rapid downward moves per unit time it suddenly develops a new fondness for crash insurance which is what UVXY in fact is.