[GDXJ] update

The threat model that I posted on April 6th remains a threat to the juniors.  Below is the chart from that post:



As you can see, nothing which has happened since then to resolve this one way or the other but in my view this either breaks out decisively, and very soon, or the odds will rapidly favor another trip to the bottom rail, and perhaps this time with a throw under before buyers become seriously interested.  A declining double top has now formed just underneath a major trend line and so this either holds the upsloping April 2015 line and gaps up and out or there is more downside in the miners for now.  Again, I think it has to be resolved soon, perhap it has another 1-2 trading days to be resolved.

You can see how the recent high of late March was nothing more than a gap fill so far.  This should be a warning to traders.  Until we get a higher high than late march I would be careful with the juniors.  If the juniors cannot breakout then we should get another buying opportunity once this breaks down into the $18 range with possible throw under dip all the way down to the $16.50 or $17 range being possible in that case.

Note: the lower this goes before a sustained bottom is put in, the more likely that EWI is wrong about this being just A of C.  Intermediate lows often relieve the stress in order to draw in new money.  There has been no real relief for the juniors for quite some time and the current wave, to be completely honest, does not at this point look motive.  So if this gets another smackdown then I think we will be in the range of where the ETF, which has no options or time value component, will have dropped 90% from its peak and that is a common place for a significant bounce/reversal or even a major trend change.