Thursday, February 6, 2014

TVIX update

Today's TVIX pullback was not unanticipated according to the model I posted yesterday as well as here.  However, I think this is the pause that refreshes.  It has not been totally confirmed as an a-b-c retracement yet but I just bought TVIX again speculatively with the appropriate stops in place in case my model proves incorrect.  I think the expected rally is almost over.  If this is correct it suggests that an intraday reversal of some size will occur and if that happens it will be a very bearish sign, a perfect setup into what I expect to be a 3rd of 3rd of 1 downdraft.

I might be a few percent too early on TVIX so I've widened my normally fairly tight stops so that I can go do other things without getting stopped out needlessly while not having to worry about a massive loss, unlikely as it is to happen. 

"Fear.  Fear... and discipline."
--Kurt Russell, "Soldier"

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