Silver smack down now in the final stages

It's no secret that metals, including silver, have been under pressure for some time now.  Having said that, I think there is good evidence to show that the main thing under attack is the paper price of metals.  Try to buy physical metals and you will encounter much higher prices than you would have thought given the spot price.  You will also encounter long waits for delivery.  Regardless of the volatility, at least we know for sure that silver will never become worthless like stocks and bonds can (and eventually will) become. 

Because of recently reduced prices, people all over the world are accelerating their hoarding of the physical metals.  That which was designed to scare them out of their metals (as it has done so many times in the past) is now having the opposite effect.  Like I have writting on many occasions, when the Ponzi is in the collapse stage, you suddenly can't fool anyone.  Of course the con men really have no choice but to play their steely eyed, bold faced game of chicked with the herd.  They will do it until horns of the herd gore them the kicking feet of the herd crash into them.  That time draws quite near IMO.  The lions are waiting for the herd to get distracted as it always seems to do but this time the herd has unusual resolve.  As a result I believe that the COMEX and/or the LME will default and the paper price of metals will rapidly diverge from the physical price.  Things that used to work all the time will stop working and things that should have been happening all along but didn't will suddenly come into play again.

And so while waiting for this all to happen I find it entertaining to watch the charts, practicing my Elliott wave modeling skills looking to predict the exact bottom (at which time I plan to make another major purchase of physical metal).  Below is the high level chart which I believe is in the middle of an A-B-C pullback from it's nearly $50 high.  That high point @ $50 formed a high degree wave 1 ("big 1").  Now, per Elliott wave rules, the A-B-C pullback appears to be forming a "big" wave 2.  When this massive wave 2 is complete I expect an absolutely shocking wave 3 upward to form in which the metals exchanges will likely default on delivery and a huge degree of fraud in the metals markets will be exposed.  Smart people, IMVHO, will want to be heavily invested in PHYSICAL metal for that 3rd wave.

Waves A and B of "big 2" have already formed IMO and are labeled below in large red font. 



Thus, wave C should be forming right now.  C should be formed of 5 downward trending steps where steps 1,3, and 5 of it should each in turn break down into 5 downward trending waves while 2 and 4 of C are a-b-c upward trending rallies in the otherwise downward overarching trend.  Again, this is just standard Elliott wave modeling, I have not done anything fancy with the labeling here.

So let's look at the C wave that I think it now in progress.  It starts from the B wave and consumes the right 1/3 of the chart above.  It starts off with 5 obvious steps downward into 1 and then rallies into 2. By Elliott wave modeling rules, the next wave should be 3 of C.  Elliott wave principle states that C waves are like 3 waves - never the shortest of the 5 and generally the most powerful.  So when you get 3rd of 3rd waves playing out, the result is often dramatic and it shows up as gaps in the chart (which I like to refer to as "cliff diving" if the trend is down).  The 3rd of C is highlighted within the blue box above and, true to model expectations, a massive plunge/gap is seen during 3 of 3 of C.  That plunge serves as a good indication that my wave count is correct.

Because I can easily count 5 waves down in it, I think wave 3 of C is now complete.  That means there should be a nice "vee"style rally into wave 4 of C.  My target price for that is somewhere in the $23 range as you can see from the zoom-in of the 5th of C wave shown below (basically a zoom in of the blue box from the above chart).  This level of detail really shows the power of 3rd waves and more specifically, the power of a 3rd of a 3rd of a C.   Major cliff diving!!

So, after the 4th wave rally plays out then all that should be left is the 5th of the 5th of the C in order to complete the "big 2" pullback.  The red lines model my expected bottom points but in general they usually either occur in the middle of the channel or they dip down very momentarily (and generally on high volume) to touch the lower channel line that connects the 1st and 3 waves (shown in grey below).  If we see the 5th of C bottom in the middle of the channel it will result in a failed 5th wave and an inclining double bottom.  That would be the most bullish scenario as it would mean that hedge fund gamblers could not wait for the wave to finish before jumping in.  In any case, we are talking about $3-$5 more downside here, tops IMO.  The is quite a bit in percentage terms anymore but it will seem like mice nuts once the 3rd wave up kicks in because I expect "big 3" to propel silver to $75. 

The fundamentals which should propel metals into a 3rd wave are forming right this very minute.  After years of being in decline, US interest rates are now beginning to rise again despite Bernanke buying all of the debt offerings. 

The reason for rising US interest rates is that others in the world are beginning to dump their treasuries, thus adding to supply.  They are either giving up on trusting us to repay the debt in like kind or they simply cannot live with nearly 0% interest return on their vast dollar holdings because their own economies are crumbling.  Everyone is dying for lack of yield.  They could buy wheat and corn but buying commodities only increases the prices of these items, thus making life harder on their poor people due to rising cost of food.  Starving people will take you into the street and kill you if they can so it is to be avoided at all costs.  As a result, we are now starting to see the dollar holders slowing beginning to buy US assets with the cash (like Smithfield foods). 

As long as the US Government allows it, this cash infusion is going to chase prices upwards IMO while the associated treasury sales required to raise cash for the purchases will increase interest rates and cause a housing sell off.  However, I can envision a day where government begins telling foreign companies, especially the Chinese, that they cannot buy our companies and our US assets "for reasons of national security".  In other words, "you idiots took our worthless green paper in trade for your goods and we do not want the worthless paper back now.  You are stuck with it".  Clearly the Chinese and others will not be happy about this but the alternative is to accept and accelerate the long term unavoidable outcome of massive inflation or even hyperinflation in the US.

In any case, I think it is a smart move to continue dollar cost averaging into metals and to expect volatility.  But never believe that a lower spot price for your metals means the metal has lost value!  The paper price is the patsy price.  It is meaningless in the big scheme of things and in the long run (retirement).  Metals should be the bulk of anyone's retirement holdings as they are the only real money in the world.  After governments screw everything up everywhere, gold and silver will still be good money in everyone's eyes.

In closing I will remind the reader that, as usual, my views are presented in the name of financial entertainment and worth not one thin dime more than you paid to read them!

What's next for solar? [SPWR]

In this post I called nearly the exact bottom for the photovoltaic solar panel manufacturers.  In that post I wrote: "I generally avoid discussing particular sectors or stocks on this blog but I just have to point out that solar is a screaming, flaming buy.  It is now exactly at the levels that Prechter predicted many if not all stocks would go: down to about 5% of their real worth.  One of my favorites for the coming big bounce is Sunpower (SPWR)." At the time of that writing, SPWR was trading at $3.77.  Today it closed at $19.64.  Not bad at all!

But now I see a possible setup in SPWR that I want to discuss.  It is not a 100% given but we will know within a couple weeks if I am right or wrong about this.  First off, the current chart for SPWR is shown below.  As you can see, a potential double top has formed.  If the shares go more than a couple bucks higher than the last peak of nearly 24 (back in mid 2011), I'll reconsider what I am about to write immediately.  However, I see 5 waves up and so I think it's probably time for buyers to pause and probably take some profits.  That means I expect a pretty sizeable pullback to occur reasonably soon (within weeks).

Let's say I'm right about that.  Let's say the momentum moves elsewhere in the market for the hot, leveraged money that Bernanke is driving into the market (or there is a broad pullback for some reason).  If that happens, I do not see a full smack down of SPWR back to $3 or $4.  Neither do I see a rapid "vee" style pull back.  Instead, I think the shares will pull back as shown (hand drawn into the chart and pointed to by ????).  In other words, A fairly quick $3 retracement and then a more gradual continuation pull back to the $12-$13 range that forms a curve as shown.  It could also form a down sloping channel at about 30 degrees down and to the right.

You don't know how many times I have seen this before but trust me, if it happens like this, it will be very bullish for the shares.  What that pattern below represents is a so called Cup With Handle formation.  In Elliott wave parlance, the right side of the cup "wall" is actually a wave 1 up.  Then the "handle" portion of the formation is a sideways wave 2 retracement, probably only to the 38.2 fib.  What I expect to see if we get a cup with handle is an eventual breakout into a 3rd wave whose height will be the depth of the cup at least.  In other words, the stock will go from $12 or $13 to $3o or $35.

A couple of things should be crystal clear in any case: the solar market is clearing itself out right now.  Bankruptcies and consolidations are happening.  The US is playing the protectionism game (massive tarrifs on Chinese solar panels) and that will be positive for First Solar and Sunpower.  Inflation is going to happen and it will certainly push up electricity prices.  Residential solar installations should really take off in the next 3 years and Sunpower is going to get a huge economic infusion as a result.  This is when not if IMO. I will be waiting for that dip and watching the volume to determine if it matches up to the cup with handle model very well.  Trust me, if this looks like a C+H in 6 months to a year then you definitely want to be on board when that 3rd wave up hits.

Of course, all bets are off if a world war breaks out or if the COMEX defaults or if they catch Obama's cronies doing more dasterdly illegal $hit or if Japan's interest rates begin to signal a slip into hyperinflation or someone sets a dirty bomb off on Wall St. or one of many other things that are very possible given the complete disfunctional state of global finance...

My counterintuitive prediction about [IBM]

Today if you mention the name of IBM, it will be acknowledged by all as a corporate leader.  It is trading near an all time high and is universally respected.  It has kept itself out of public scandals for many years and Wall Street loves it.   Today is May 28 2013.  I mention these things not for you reading this post today because you already know them to be true, but rather for the benefit of those reading it in 5 years.  I believe it will be important context at that time.

Despite the title of this post and despite the few words above on the state of IBM today, the purpose of this post is really less about IBM and more about the valuation of equities in general.  It is also an opportunity to test the value of the Elliott wave modeling in a completely unbiased way which can only be done by discussing the direction of events before they happen.  Applying models to things that have already happened has value but is also prone to being gamed.  But using them to predict future events and then measuring the results against predictions should be instructive for everyone, not the least of which will be me.

So I repeat.  Right now, there is not one glimmer of bad news for IBM and their share price reflects that.  In fact, quite the contrary.  It was only a couple years ago that their computer, deep blue, beat the world chess champion.  And it was even more recent that their next generation AI computer, Watson, handily beat the best of the world's best human players at the question based knowledge game of Jeopardy.  Even more recently, IBM showed its prowess at manipulation of matter at the atomic level by releasing the fantastic YouTube, "A Boy And His Atom".  These advances are all fantastic in nature, true science fiction.

But despite all of that I am calling for a massive collapse in the price of IBM shares.  I am doing this as the S+P 500 has been hitting new highs nearly every week.  The basis of my prediction has nothing to do with the so called fundamentals of the shares.  Fundamentals are, for the most part, nothing but sales materials for Wall St. stock peddlers.  So don't ask me what the PE, PS, PB, growth, etc. is because I specifically have avoided reviewing these things before making this post.

The reason for this seemingly reckless behavior is to prove a long standing point of mine: stocks have no real value.  Corporations exist primarily for the benefit of the employees, not shareholders.  In fact it only makes sense that those doing the work will be the ones rewarded for their effort.  The main reason I am now calling for a massive correction to begin within a year is my interpretation of the Elliott wave model as applied to the IBM chart.  Referring to the chart below, check out the main, multi-decade ascension of IBM's chart with its rise to 1, decline to 2, parabolic (i.e. 3rd wave style) rise to 3, massive vee style a-b-c collapse to 4 and now the building of what I interpret to be the 5th of 5.

Notice also the Elliott wave perfection of a sideways retracement from 1 to 2 and then a vee type retracement from 3 to 4.  This is known as alternation in Elliott wave parlance.  In short, if the last correction was vee the next will be sideways and vice-versa.  Also note how a line between 1 and 3 is almost exactly parallel to a line between 2 and 4.  This formation of parallel lines is classic Elliott wave modeling.  Note how 3 went exponential, again classic EW thinking and also how 3 of 5 has been the strongest wave of that impulse.  Now, I could be a little premature here, I will agree.  The chart could still be working on 3 of 5 instead of 5 of 5 as I'm claiming it to be.  But the 5th wave often stops at the resistance line formed by 1 and 3 and so I think it is a good time to start talking about a massive a-b-c pullback to the prior 4th which is down near $50.

While I do not know what the fundamentals of the company are at this instance there are a couple of fundamentals that I am aware of that also give me confidence to write something so seemingly crazy as this post.  The first is that I think IBM shareholders will be a victim of herding nature.  Since IBM is so true blue and so trusted, retirement fund managers will all have invested in it by now; it is considered perfectly safe.  But no stock is safe from wild price swings.  Retirees will be asking for their money back in the coming 5-10 years so that they can pay bills during retirement and that means fund redemptions must necessarily increase.  This means shares must be sold.  Unfortunately, there is no new crop of young people with good jobs to buy up the shares.  In other words lots of sellers and few buyers.  Even Bernanke will run out of funny money to buy shares with at some point.  That means lots of supply and little demand.

IBM is also an international company which will suffer more than US-specific companies as the global debt Ponzi collapse escalates.  How can IBM continue to do well when Europe and the Euro are at grave risk of break up and collapse respectively in the next 2 years?  I also think that IBM will one day be subjected to "success attacks" a-la-Apple where the government, which is dying a slow death, begins to demand more taxes from the internationals like IBM.  IBM has clearly avoided repatriation of revenues (like any intelligent multinational should) and kept that money in tax havens.  The increasingly desperate government will start clawing away at anyone within range and I'm pretty sure they are already jealous of IBM's wealth and looking for ways to steal it from them.  Government will vilify the likes of IBM when IBM resists the theft.

Bottom line, I think IBM is an easy short sell on the first sign of high volume sell off.  In other words, all you have to do is listen for the rumble of hooves running away from the shares and it will likely be pretty low risk to bet against the continued ascension of IBM shares.  I'm sure the jackals of the financial world are out there right now looking for any sign of weakness that would signal that a low risk attack is possible.

Again, the point of this post is not to recommend any kind of investment but rather to further test my views of how financial markets really work in this world.  I wish IBM all the success in the world not only because of the amazing technology that they have been developing but also given that I worked there for 10 years and am vested in their pension program as a result.

JNK Update - ready to break down?

In this recent post I suggested that the JNK ETF was at significant resistance point and a lot hinged on its ability to break out.  In that same post I reminded people that JNK is thought by some of the great technical analysts such as Bob Prechter to be a complacency indicator.  Basically, JNK is full of junk bonds which pay higher interest rates but which will lose value quickly if the government ever stops propping up the economy OR (and this is the part that will catch most traders by surprise) the herd stops reacting positively to more stimulus.  In other words, the theory is that stimulus will first have diminishing returns and then it will eventually have negative economic returns as increasing prices for food and necessities impact the poor people to the degree that it outweighs stock market benefits for the rich.  In other word, the rich stop getting richer to the degree that enough crumbs fall off their table to support the poor who are trying to survive on the crumbs.

As long as JNK is being pumped up it means that investors have confidence that the current system of doing things will not result in a loss of confidence in the economy.  As soon as that loss occurs, people will run out of risky assets like JNK and into cash (with gold and silver probably serving as cash for many people this time around).  In this way, JNK is treated as a complacency indicator.  The higher JNK goes, the more

complacent people are.  I think JNK is a good shorting candidate since it could not break out.  More evidence will be seen next week when the ETF tests the next support level.  I believe that there is an 80% chance that the support will not hold.  It will likely mean a correction for stocks.
If I'm right about this, the fall could be significant.  If JNK is, as I believe it to be, completing a so called ending diagonal then a significant reversal, complete with so called cliff diving, gaps and massive breakdowns on high volume is in the cards.

Here is a description of ending diagonals:
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2013/01/28/Ending-Diagonal-A-Pattern-to-Send-Shivers-Down-the-Spine-of-Investors.aspx#axzz2URlACRdr

Liberty activist Adam Kokesh is one of the bulls in the herd.

In case you have not heard about the exploits of Adam Kokesh yet, I think he is well worth watching.  Here is his latest move: taunting police by virtue of his simple presence at a marijuana smoke out protest into arresting him:
http://www.spreadlibertynews.com/talk-show-host-adam-kokesh-detained-by-feds-video-evidence-and-defense-funds-to-back-him/

In short, he is an in-their-face activist who has put himself at legal risk several time with the government and continues to do so in the name of libertarian/constitutional values.  Each time they try to charge him with bogus charges that carry very severe penalties (i.e. decades in jail).  Each time there is enough video evidence to call the police lying scum bags who are using their jackboot tactics and abuse of authority to try to intimidate people into submission.  They bandy "felony" charges about like it was nothing.  It is clearly abuse of power, a clear constitutional violation.  Yet when the charges don't stick, nobody gets busted for false arrest. 

Kokesh is what they think of as a "hard case", a nail that needs to be hammered down.  For years they have gotten away with doing this sort of thing and few people cared.  Government enforcers focus overwhelming force onto a single individual and serve him up as an example to anyone else who would speak up for their (OUR) rights.  But the mood of the herd has certainly changed.  Congress recently showed that they picked up on this by finally slapping Eric the gun running con man Holder with contempt charges.   Congress didn't do this because it was the right thing to do.  They did it because they knew the herd is watching.  The herd is no longer docile.  Leadership members of the herd will no longer just sit there while government rips us all off.  Their actions will incite others to resist.

Just like the lions vs. the water buffalo video that I think is so instructive, the herd will become bolder and bolder in its own defense going forward.  The momentum is obvious.  The best bet for government would be to, right here, right now, back off and wave the white flag and ask "can't we all just get along" and "give" us some of our freedoms and privacies back.  After all, they can resume their corrupt activities after the herd calms down a bit.  But those running the show are like the core team of lions in the video.  They are steely eyed.  They do not believe they can lose.  They think they hold all of the cards.  They have significantly discounted the herd's ability to organize and to strike back.  They think the herd is perpetually stupid and/or docile.  They have discounted the power of the Internet in spreading the word which can whip up the herd to action.

The government can no longer win with Kokesh.  Each time they arrest him for trumped up felony this or that they risk that he will be acquitted.  Each time he is acquitted it becomes part of a growing pattern that shows he is being targeted.  Each time the herd observes this happening he looks like less of a crazy loon and more like someone who is really on to something with all of his claims about government abuse.

There are only 3 choices now:

1. leave him alone and risk him telling everyone that he beat the government.  That is a real risk at this point due to the gross mishandling of him that has occurred so far.
2. continue arresting him and pushing his buttons in the hopes that he will make a mistake and open himself up to provable felony bull$shit charges.
3. kill him either overtly in the course of "doing their job" or covertly.

Kokesh is not going to give up until he wins or until he is dead.  That is the most dangerous kind of enemy a government can have.  One who cannot be intimidated even by threat of imprisonment, physical harm or death.  Government has put itself in a no win situation here.  Their best option is #1 and even to apologize and to punish some of the centurions who falsely arrested him.  Government should extend the olive branch even if they can only do it disingenuously.   #2 just gives him a safe location (prison) to run his anti-government campaign.  And #3 could kick off civil war, guns and all.  I know that sounds far fetched and indeed it is not high on the Gaussian distribution of likely outcomes but history has shown time and again that a butterfly flapping its wings or one extra straw is all it takes to trigger a reaction that has been boiling under the surface for a long time.  

I believe that government fears that some catalyst will eventually do just that.  Why else go to such extremes to limit the supply of ammunition on the open market for the people?  Of course, it's nothing more than a stalling tactic.  The ammo manufacturers will eventually fill the recent government orders for a billion plus bullets and then the manufacturers will have plenty of capacity for the people again.  Fear of this event might press government into another false flag operation which they might use to disarm people.  I think this would be a giant miscalculation on the part of government.  This is not the time for another shock and awe power grab from the people.  Nobody will give up their guns this time as they did when their front doors were kicked in by the cops during Katrina.  My read of the herd is that the people will fight back this time if that's what it comes to.  If government doesn't show signs of backing down soon I think there are a lot of people out there, regardless of whether or not they are misguided in their beliefs, that will decide to stand their ground and fight for their rights using all means available instead of being bullied into submission.

Recent volume spike in GLD is perfect technical setup for a reversal.

Gold and silver went up like crazy into a 3rd wave which peaked in Sept 2011.  I think what followed was a so called failed 5th wave.  I warned that this might turn out to be the case back on April 14th based on my interpretation of the Elliott wave model for the GLD ETF.  I wrote, "If this breaks below the low of the 4^th wave, EW computers that assume failed 5^th will assume that we have an a-b-c decline to at least 38.2, perhaps 50 and possibly 61.8 fib. "  I also wrote that other upside possibilities that I mentioned were negated if GLD could not hold $150.

Well, GLD did continue to pull back and now I think it is time to comment again because we are at the first potential decision making threshold that I mentioned above: the 38.2% fib retracement.  You can see today's chart below. 

Beside the pullback to the 38.2 % fib, I want to point out that this pullback was accompanied by a huge volume spike that was only exceeded slightly by the volume spike of the peak of the 3rd wave.   Volume spikes like this generally point to conditions of maximum greed on the upside and maximum fear on the downside.  I also want to point out that the last few days might have just put in a double tap (double bottom) on the 38.2 as shown below.

While all of this is good evidence that a bottom is in (and perhaps even worth making a long side bet on if you are a trader), I will also point out that this low is coming off of a so called declining double top that took significant time to build.  Declining double tops indicate significant weakness and in fact would drive me to think that a 50% fib retracement is actually more likely than a 38.2% retracement.  But I also cannot ignore the massive volume spike at the 38.2% fib either.  If I had to wager I would say it is 70-30 in favor of us having just seen a significant bottom put in.  I would quickly remove these odds if the 38.2 fib cannot hold.  In that case, the 50% fib would be the next major support IMO.

Keep in mind that I think we just saw a massive 7 year long 1st wave finish in Aug of 2012.  That means we are into the a-b-c retrace portion of the model which will lead to a large 2nd wave retracement.  When that 2nd wave finishes, I expect a 3rd wave to unfold which will dwarf the 1st wave that ran from 2005-2012.  I believe that the coming, multiyear 3rd wave is what will make everyone in the world remember that gold is money and nothing else is.  Large aspects of the global monetary system (i.e. the global debt Ponzi) will collapse which is what will support increases in the dollar price of gold.  I expect the COMEX to basically collapse and to admit as Nixon did in 1971 that they do not have the gold on hand to pay back to those who have bought and stored it there.  I expect corporations to start listing gold as an asset on their balance sheets, something that nobody does today and that nobody in any of the financial press or blogs is calling for.  This will be strong proof that the re-monetization of gold has occurred and it will be a sign that it might be a good time to move out of money (i.e. gold and silver) and into income producing assets (like rental property).

If you are considering buying some gold and silver, watch GLD and if it cannot hold the 38.2 then wait.  Otherwise, I would not hesitate to buy physical gold because the only lever that the global governments have in slowing the crash (so they think) is printing massive amounts of money.  As one government prints so must they all.  It is a completely interconnected scam and both the US and Japan are now printing up 85 billion per month with no limit.  They will continue until they get the results they desire or until people lose confidence in them completely.   I'm convinced we will see the latter and not the former.
 
 





Increasing private repatriation of gold is being met with delays.

I'm seeing a rapidly increasing number of reports in the news sources that I follow which indicate that bullion banks might not have the gold on hand that they say they do.   This of course comes as no shock to me.  If you look at what it costs to build, staff, and run a secure facility for the storage of gold and then you look at the cost of storing your gold there, something doesn't add up.  Gold vaults need, well, vaults!  Those don't come cheap.  They also need computers and security systems and people to do paperwork and to sell the services, etc.  If the true cost of all this was put to those wanting to store their gold in the facility then I'm sure it would not be cost effective.  It would cost 5-10% of the value of the gold per annum.  Anyone paying that would have no value left after only a few years of "safe" storage.  In other words, it is an extreme luxury to have this. 

Yet many bullion banks do exist and many people store their gold in them.  The only way this can possibly work is if the bullion banks are using the gold on account to gamble with.  The gambling can take the form of loaning the gold out to other businesses in order to generate a revenue stream that pays the cost of the storage and then some.   With Bernanke's zero interest rate manipulations virtually guaranteeing prosperity to gamblers, gamblers will go to any length to find money to gamble with.  So they go to the bullion bank, borrow some gold and then sell it on the open market.  They then use the funds in order to invest in paper assets using high leverage.   The game is to pile debt upon debt, leverage upon leverage.  If you don't do it someone else will.  This is the recipe for a mania. 

It all seems good until there are no more good bets to make with the borrowed money.  That's when the bad bets are made because the gambler is used to the cash flow from gambling.  And so lots of bad "hail Mary" bets are made, many of which fail to pay off.  At some point the people who made deposits in the bullion bank begin to get worried about the safety of their gold and so they begin to ask to see it and/or ask for it to be returned from them.  But the bullion bank no longer has the gold.  It has been loaned out to gamblers who sold it off and then lost the money they used to gamble with.  Besides, this has been happening for years even back to when gold was $800/ozt. or less and so to buy the gold back and pay off the debt to the bullion bank is now impossible.  Too much of the fiat currency that the gold was traded for has been lost.

Thus begins the stalling and the excuses.  First it's "no you can't look at it for security reasons".  Then it's "well, the Queen can have a peek but she doesn't know $hit from shinola and so gold colored bars can be set up for her to view.  Then it's, "well you can only withdraw so much gold per unit time" using excuses like "we need to do this in order to stop money laundering operations".  Later on it's "well look, you can have dollars back but we will no longer settle accounts in actual metal like we said we would".   Folks, we are already at this point.  Swiss banks are making excuses about why they are delaying the return of gold to those who are asking.  And some experts are now predicting that the COMEX will soon begin forcing traders to settle in cash.

This is zero different from the US default on gold convertibility of the dollar except that it will involve businesses instead of the government.  Such an event would have the effect of collapsing confidence in the con game across the board and would likely wake the American people up enough to demand a full and impartial 3rd party accounting of the gold held in trust for the American people by the US government.  There is good evidence that the US is exporting more gold than we are producing.  I believe the reason for this is that the US is sending gold to those areas of the world whose leveraged gold Ponzis are collapsing: The UK, Switzerland, and Hong Kong.  This is where all of the gold banks are located, this is where all of the highly leveraged gold loaning has been done.  

If these guys collapse it could set off a chain reaction that would collapse US run Ponzis.  This is no different than the US sending dollars to everyone and their brother during the collapse of 2008.  The Federal Reserve is trying to play "shock absorber" for the global economy.  At some point they will fail.  They will simply run out of resources to send into the fight and they will have to stop.  When that happens, the economic tide will go out in a historic way and we will really know who has been skinny dipping all this time.  When that happens I hope the US has the good sense to fill the jails with the financial "robber barons" that have run our economy into the dirt.  It is economic terrorism on a massive scale and all of it has been enabled by the con game of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking.

If you don't own gold in your physical possession, you don't own it at all.  Physical possession is 9/10ths of the law in every collapse in history.  Once things collapse and so many people are owed there is no way everyone can collect.   It is part and parcel of the Global Debt Ponzi.

And now I return you to your evening while I continue buying parts for my AR-15.