Bottoming watch for Velocity of Money continues.

I have shown the wave count for M2 velocity of money before but this time I will show it for MZM (Money of Zero Maturity). Essentially, it means, the velocity of cash.  I expect the velocity of cash to begin turning upward within 1 year and perhaps sooner.  It will be accompanied by higher prices and rising interest rates.

I think what will happen is that people will lose confidence in the issuing authority of the fake money no matter whether the privileged adolescent or the career criminal wins the election.  Either of them will inherit 50 years of reckless borrowing in order to buy things we really didn't need.  Not for the poor mind you - the condition of the poor has not gotten better.  The rich have gotten richer and so they must logically have been the beneficiary of the deficient spending even if most people don't understand the mechanics of it.  All you have to do is observe the end result and you will come up with the right answer.

When VOM does turn up, it will likely do so at a much faster rate than before, something similar to the red pointer shown below.  If my model is correct, it will move up quickly enough to scare people.   That will be a very good time to have a nice pile of gold and silver coins in your physical possession.

Don't say you weren't warned.  I have been doing so for years now but always saying that deflation will likely precede the inflation.  But if I look around, gold deflated before it bounced, oil deflated, many things deflated.  I still think that the stock market and real estate bubbles have to pop before the massive inflation begins.  Time will tell but anyone who thinks a soft landing is coming needs to read more history and take a math lesson or two.  We ain't seen bad yet, but its coming.

On Hillary's email server "carelessness".

It amazes me that I have to write something that seems so obvious but the main stream media know that repetition is a form of herd hypnosis and so they use it to influence people's thinking.  I for one am not hypnotized by it but I look around at all the magazine articles and the comments about Hillary and I never see anyone saying what seems to be obvious to me which is that carelessness is not a defense and taking responsibility is not just having to avoid blaming someone else for the deed.

Imagine a drunk driver who is swerving down the road.  Maybe he hits some people, maybe he only scares them and they escape damage.  When the cops pull him over and ask him to explain the drunk driving, who among us will be able to offer the excuse that they were just careless at at the bar and they over drank.  Oh yeah, and then they say, "I take full responsibility, I'm sorry" but please let me go without any criminal action.

That will never happen.

Imagine a tense international situation.  The nuclear football has been brought before President Hillary and armed.  She has to make a launch decision.  All of a sudden, she is distracted and loses her balance because of her physical/medical problems and she goes to rest her hand on the table for support but it lands on the big red button instead.  As the missiles are leaving their tubes across America, Hillary gets on TV and says, "I was just careless and I accept full responsibility for WW3. Please don't hate me for it.".

I make these somewhat extreme case examples to prove a point:lack of intention to break major rules is not and never has been a defense for having done it!  When you are freaking secretary of state you have far too much power and influence to be making casual mistakes and having done so you cannot simply be pardoned for your oversight.  Also, taking responsibility should include stepping down otherwise it is simply lip service to the phrase.  Instead, Hillary wants to step up.

It really is as simple as that.  Why is there so much controversy on this matter?  Hillary showed judgement that was so inexcusably poor that, like any other drunk driver, she should be put in jail and made to face criminal penalties for her actions.  People who accept these big positions with high pay and global recognition should know this.  And the people who are forced to live with the consequences of having shit leaders in place should know it even more.

With all that said, Hillary wasn't careless at all.  She is crooked.  She didn't want her pay for play scam going through government servers.  She wanted anonymity in her illegal dealings.  This is the only way a crook like her and her shit husband could ever be worth $30 and $90 million respectively even though the vast majority of their adult lives has been in government "service".

All fiat currency eventually reverts to its intrinsic value of zero.

Venezuela is in the throes of hyperinflation.  It is the final stage in the death of a faith based currency.  It is that time when people have lost faith in the issuing authority and thus in the currency itself.  You know it is in the end game when they begin weighing piles of paper notes for trade purposes instead of worrying too much about the face value of them.

Soon their money will die and then the people will be forced to come up with something new.  Maybe they will stupidly reinvent the "new, new new bolivar" and con the people into using it.  Or maybe they will take on the US dollar as their own currency like so many other idiot 3rd world nations have done.  Maybe they will finally wake up and decide that gold is money and everything else is debt.  I'm not holding my breath for that last option. History teaches that it's just too honest an outcome to happen without an armed revolution.  After all, if the people won't fight for their freedom, why give it to them?

Sooner or later we here in the US will begin to see massive inflation.  I still think it will be preceded by another massive stock market and real estate deflationary crash but whether sooner or later it is coming.  We will know it is likely started when this chart of the velocity of M2 finishes tanking.  Maybe it will take 1 year to begin but probably not much longer IMO.



Those who have trusted everything to the fake money will get screwed, period.  Those who think the government is organized crime and that fake money is the work of the Devil will not get nearly as screwed, especially if such beliefs are accompanied by retirement savings in pure precious metals and augmented by many months of food stocks and a sufficient supply of defensive measures such as hand guns, shot guns and AR15s with enough associated ammo for each type of weapon.

Jury tells government to piss off over Oregon park standoff

The Bundy family finally had to face charges for their take over of an Oregon wildlife preserve.  But despite best efforts of the authorities, the jury acquitted all seven of those charged in the matter.  Well, who would a thunk it?  After all, the government thugs always win these matters, don't they?  Well, again, not no more.  It didn't matter as much if the Bundys et al. were guilty of the laws as written IMO.  In fact, the laws are so numerous and so vague that pretty much anyone could be put on trial at any time for any reason these days.  The establishment is very used to the jury saying, "well, if the government has them on trial then they must be morally wrong if not legally guilty, so allow Caesar to throw the book at them".  

Those days are over.  Increasingly we will find that people identify with the accused and thus they make it harder and harder for government to get the easy wins that they have become so accustomed to.  I predict we will see an exponential rise in jury nullifications going forward. Really bad people will still get put in jail but unless the jury feels threatened by the defendant we will see the jury ignore the trumped up evidence or ignore the law completely and vote for acquittal for nonviolent, non-victim crimes.  The reason is simple: conservatives don't care to control other people's actions as long as they aren't hurting others.  Liberals, and I mean true liberals with no automatic implication on Democrats, are control freaks.  Many liberal GOPs are control freak liberals.  We have to separate the political party connotation from the denotation of the words conservative and liberal if we want to understand the direction of the future.

Donna Brazile loses overpaid CNN job over leaking debate questions to Clinton.

Back when liberalism was on the rise you could do almost any kind of creepy illegal shit and never face the music.  Not no more folks.  Them days is over.  The recent case of Donna Brazile getting fired from liberal shit hole CNN is the most recent evidence point for this.  They did this despite Brazile going on broadcast TV and denying the whole matter.

At peak liberalism, nobody ever gets punished even if caught red handed.  But post peak liberalism there is rapidly vanishing leniency for those who get caught with hand in cookie jar (if unclear about this, ask yourself why Brazile would take this risk...) until eventually we see that everyone caught is publicly thrown under the bus piece by piece. 

But still to come, still ahead of us, we are going to see a major sea change in these things.  The powers that be now understand that it matters to the herd if you get caught doing wrong and they understand that so many have gotten caught that the people no longer trust them.  As I have been writing for years now, the one and only way to handle this problem is to get out in front of it by proactively offering up minions as sacrifices to the herd-turned-wolfpack.  In other words, the crime bosses will actually admit that some of their minions are guilty of crimes BEFORE the investigative reporters report on it.  They will do it proactively in order to fool the people into thinking that the crime bosses actually care about justice.

As this happens, minions will get scared and they will increasingly keep little black books.  At some point, the wrong minion who knows more than those trying to sacrifice him thinks he knows gets thrown under and the black book is pulled out as a defense.  The result is skeleton rain.  The dirty closet pops open and scores of very ugly skeletons come flopping out on the floor for all to see.  Big names get implicated in very dirty shit.  Its all coming because that is how criminal networks always collapse - from within.  And no, it won't be different this time.

One more prediction: it used to be that if you were an investigative reporter you would probably be killed in a fiery crash or perhaps by suicide if you got to be too much of a pain in the ass.  Going forward we will see some of the crime capos end up dead or missing and investigative reporters will be left alone.  The focus will be on getting rid of those who were caught or about to get caught instead of focusing on those who are doing the catching or telling the story about who got caught.

Patrick Watson comments on the fake economy

It's a major theme of mine that the rise of liberalism brings (and has brought) the rise of everything fake.  Fake money which feeds fake price levels, fake politicians, fake laws, fake prosperity, fake promises, fake marriage, fake religion, fake political correctness/morality, fake security, FAKE FAKE FAKE.  Additionally, real things like physical gold was mocked, called a Pet Rock and otherwise laughed at as a barbarous relic.

As the herd changes direction back toward conservatism, all of these things will first be exposed, then understood by the masses, then discredited and finally disavowed by the herd. 

Today Patrick Watson over at Mauldin economics chimed in with his own views on the fake economy which I thought was a right headed article.