Wednesday, October 1, 2014
NFLX is going down.
Check out my previous post on the near term wave count of NFLX. It predicted that the shares would peak at either the 38.2 or the 50 fib. It hit the 38.2 nearly exactly and then began to collapse. Look at how 1 of 3 broke down the lower rail. With a PE of about a gazillion during risk off mode, NFLX has nowhere to go but down.
JDST update
If JNUG is putting in a near term bottom, the reverse should be true for JDST. That final 3 wave move into red 5 was likely its near term peak. All bets are off if a higher high is seen than $17.72. For people who want to keep things simple and easy, just short JDST here and set a stop at $17.72. You risk 41 cents for the opportunity to make $6+ bucks. Those are pretty good odds folks and that is all you can ask for. How many times do you need to make 35-45% like that before it turns into real money for you?
At the very least JDST should go back down to the level of the prior 4th as shown. It could go much lower and of course eventually will but I will be looking for a bottom around $11 and then I might even go long it if the waves will allow.
At the very least JDST should go back down to the level of the prior 4th as shown. It could go much lower and of course eventually will but I will be looking for a bottom around $11 and then I might even go long it if the waves will allow.
It's getting real for the con men: Argentina president turns on its central bank.
I won't take the time to post links into my blog about it but my predictions have been clear: it will be a sign of the end times that the con men running the global funny money show begin to turn on each other because it is nothing but one big massive global organized crime syndicate. I have been quite clear and concise about it: this is how all organized crime organizations are brought down: from within. They begin infighting over the scraps of the collapsing economy. It will be seen the first and the worst in 3rd world $hitholes like Argentina but it will be felt everywhere eventually: Russia, Euroland, the USA and yes even China and Australia. We cannot start a new system until the old one is swept away along with all who have been running it.
I hereby pledge to throw a 50 person party, free food and alcohol for anyone in the Austin TX area within 2 months of the conviction of any US central banker (must be an officer of the federal reserve) and the number goes to 100 people if the conviction includes either Greenspan or Bernanke. Also, if a mob takes the federal reserve building by storm and executes street justice, that counts as a major conviction in my book, good for a 100 person party in order to celebrate the occasion. Dissolution of the federal reserve means I will throw the party at Zilker Park and it will be at least 200 people on the invite list. Should one of these parties be announced, I will be accepting RSVPs after I set the party details. There will be burning Greenspan and Bernanke in effigy and all sorts of similar events to commemorate a break from the financial tyranny that has gripped the USA since the founding of the fraudulent fed in 1913.
I hereby pledge to throw a 50 person party, free food and alcohol for anyone in the Austin TX area within 2 months of the conviction of any US central banker (must be an officer of the federal reserve) and the number goes to 100 people if the conviction includes either Greenspan or Bernanke. Also, if a mob takes the federal reserve building by storm and executes street justice, that counts as a major conviction in my book, good for a 100 person party in order to celebrate the occasion. Dissolution of the federal reserve means I will throw the party at Zilker Park and it will be at least 200 people on the invite list. Should one of these parties be announced, I will be accepting RSVPs after I set the party details. There will be burning Greenspan and Bernanke in effigy and all sorts of similar events to commemorate a break from the financial tyranny that has gripped the USA since the founding of the fraudulent fed in 1913.
$COMPX update
In yesterday's $COMPX update I wrote:"The first step would be to break down the lower green rail and to
potentially back test it from below. Per the lower right picture, I
think that could be happening right now. Then we should see the lower
blue rail get taken out."
Today the sell off was significant in terms of percentage and market participation. Today I smelled a bit of early fear. Not wild eyed, rebel yell panic, mind you, but eyes did get a little wide and pupils did get dilated a bit. We ain't seen fear yet but I reckon it's mos def coming.
Per the model below, the wave did break down below the green support, rally back up to kiss it good bye and the initial part of a larger 3rd (likely 1 of 3) played out. Obviously from here, any break back up into the channel is bullish for stocks and TVIX should be dumped immediately and without ceremony in that event.
Other than that I think we just hold on for the ride until I think 5 good sized (black numbers) wave down have occurred and then get to the sidelines to side step the likely strong bounce. Or, for this first bounce, even go long SVXY as it could prove to be a vee style bounce.
I know it has been a long time since this crew has felt kind of wind filling our sails. Breathe in deeply of the fresh new air! It has been liberal storm after liberal storm after lying liberal storm for the shorts since 2009. That big of a stretch can make people second guess themselves and make mistakes. Fight the urge. Know that the rally since 2009 is likely over and know that the most likely outcome is that the massive expanding wedge formed by the S+P 500 and the DJIA are going to collapse. Theses indices will likely put in lower lows than 2009 and not just by a little bit.
If you understand the larger wave count you will see that we are still retracing the massive grand super cycle degree 3rd that ended with dot bomb. The wave since then has been an expanded flat which is why, even though that massive 3rd should be retracing, the markets were allowed to reach higher than the 3rd wave high. What it really means is that the coming 5 waves down into supercycle C of grand supercycle 4 is likely going to happen very rapidly from here. It could all be over within 18-24 months.
Let me say this again: The prior 4th wave target on the DJIA is well sub 1k. A natural retracement is the level of the prior 4th. That means that the DJIA could collapse down to below 1k within 18-24 months. "How can this be possible?", you might think. The reason it is not only possible but probable is that the whole thing is a house of cards with promises and debt and IOUs and agreements and guarantees all stacked one upon the other in order to keep the funny money confidence game scam going as long as possible. Debt has been used to pump this up and debt can default in an eye blink. It can even happen so quickly that the short ETFs default on you (like TVIX) even before you can get your gains out. That's what the power of 3rd of 3rd of 3rd of C can do: massive, domino style defaults and you really will not know who hasn't been skinny dipping until the collapse is done and the dust of the twin towers clears. Until that happens you should assume that everyone is swimming naked in the ocean. When you quad or quint your TVIX winnings, don't be afraid to take back your original bet out of the markets and then leave some of their money to ride if you like. But don't assume anything fair will result. Fairness will be out the window and possession will be 9/10ths of the law. Forget this simple rule at your own peril.
Trust in the waves and forget the lying con men whose lies and treachery just ooze out of their pie holes. They will say anything, do anything to trick you but at the end of the day we will revert to the mean and the mean is going to be very, very mean this time around. The extreme liberalism and foolish sheeple-thinking that "government is inherently good and would not lie to me or cheat me like that" is exactly what enabled the con men to lie and cheat to a historic degree.
Oh yeah, and get a gun and learn how to use it. The police will not be able to keep up with the crime that is coming. I fear that I might be required to shoot someone in self defense before this is over in order to protect myself and my family from the disorder and violence that will erupt when people who think they have nothing left to lose decide to "lose it".
Today the sell off was significant in terms of percentage and market participation. Today I smelled a bit of early fear. Not wild eyed, rebel yell panic, mind you, but eyes did get a little wide and pupils did get dilated a bit. We ain't seen fear yet but I reckon it's mos def coming.
Per the model below, the wave did break down below the green support, rally back up to kiss it good bye and the initial part of a larger 3rd (likely 1 of 3) played out. Obviously from here, any break back up into the channel is bullish for stocks and TVIX should be dumped immediately and without ceremony in that event.
Other than that I think we just hold on for the ride until I think 5 good sized (black numbers) wave down have occurred and then get to the sidelines to side step the likely strong bounce. Or, for this first bounce, even go long SVXY as it could prove to be a vee style bounce.
I know it has been a long time since this crew has felt kind of wind filling our sails. Breathe in deeply of the fresh new air! It has been liberal storm after liberal storm after lying liberal storm for the shorts since 2009. That big of a stretch can make people second guess themselves and make mistakes. Fight the urge. Know that the rally since 2009 is likely over and know that the most likely outcome is that the massive expanding wedge formed by the S+P 500 and the DJIA are going to collapse. Theses indices will likely put in lower lows than 2009 and not just by a little bit.
If you understand the larger wave count you will see that we are still retracing the massive grand super cycle degree 3rd that ended with dot bomb. The wave since then has been an expanded flat which is why, even though that massive 3rd should be retracing, the markets were allowed to reach higher than the 3rd wave high. What it really means is that the coming 5 waves down into supercycle C of grand supercycle 4 is likely going to happen very rapidly from here. It could all be over within 18-24 months.
Let me say this again: The prior 4th wave target on the DJIA is well sub 1k. A natural retracement is the level of the prior 4th. That means that the DJIA could collapse down to below 1k within 18-24 months. "How can this be possible?", you might think. The reason it is not only possible but probable is that the whole thing is a house of cards with promises and debt and IOUs and agreements and guarantees all stacked one upon the other in order to keep the funny money confidence game scam going as long as possible. Debt has been used to pump this up and debt can default in an eye blink. It can even happen so quickly that the short ETFs default on you (like TVIX) even before you can get your gains out. That's what the power of 3rd of 3rd of 3rd of C can do: massive, domino style defaults and you really will not know who hasn't been skinny dipping until the collapse is done and the dust of the twin towers clears. Until that happens you should assume that everyone is swimming naked in the ocean. When you quad or quint your TVIX winnings, don't be afraid to take back your original bet out of the markets and then leave some of their money to ride if you like. But don't assume anything fair will result. Fairness will be out the window and possession will be 9/10ths of the law. Forget this simple rule at your own peril.
Trust in the waves and forget the lying con men whose lies and treachery just ooze out of their pie holes. They will say anything, do anything to trick you but at the end of the day we will revert to the mean and the mean is going to be very, very mean this time around. The extreme liberalism and foolish sheeple-thinking that "government is inherently good and would not lie to me or cheat me like that" is exactly what enabled the con men to lie and cheat to a historic degree.
Oh yeah, and get a gun and learn how to use it. The police will not be able to keep up with the crime that is coming. I fear that I might be required to shoot someone in self defense before this is over in order to protect myself and my family from the disorder and violence that will erupt when people who think they have nothing left to lose decide to "lose it".
I liked the action on JNUG today...
Per yesterday's update, I expected a move up in JNUG today and as luck would have it, we got one, volatile though it might have been.
After such a long ass beating, I don't expect JNUG to just suddenly turn upwards. After all, it has rallied only to collapse several times already. Thus, after wave 1 up of a rally I would expect wave 2 back down to be a vee retracement, something which I often refer to as The Owl (or in this case, reverse Owl). This has all the earmarks (no pun intended). After what I believed was a valid bottoming count, I now see 5 waves up into blue 1 and then an a-b-c into a higher low which I count as blue 2. If this is correct, tomorrow is likely going to burn hair off the assess of the M+M shorts because it should be 3 of 1 or C of some larger degree a-b-c. I will not know until after I see the waves play out but don't be surprised if JNUG doubles within 10 trading days. Metals and miners are that oversold right now.
Of course, it could just be back testing the resistance line from below somewhere within the blue circle as well. If it breaks out of that, however, a much, much larger rally could be in store. You can safely set your stops at $11.69 right now. In other words, it is very, very unlikely to be able to take you out at that level and then bounce higher after leaving you in the ditch. If it goes down there, it is likely going even lower. These are how the odds work in this stock gambling game. Tell yourself this 3 times and it will help get your mind right about this game:
there is no such thing as stock market investing; it's all gambling.
there is no such thing as stock market investing; it's all gambling.
there is no such thing as stock market investing; it's all gambling.
After such a long ass beating, I don't expect JNUG to just suddenly turn upwards. After all, it has rallied only to collapse several times already. Thus, after wave 1 up of a rally I would expect wave 2 back down to be a vee retracement, something which I often refer to as The Owl (or in this case, reverse Owl). This has all the earmarks (no pun intended). After what I believed was a valid bottoming count, I now see 5 waves up into blue 1 and then an a-b-c into a higher low which I count as blue 2. If this is correct, tomorrow is likely going to burn hair off the assess of the M+M shorts because it should be 3 of 1 or C of some larger degree a-b-c. I will not know until after I see the waves play out but don't be surprised if JNUG doubles within 10 trading days. Metals and miners are that oversold right now.
Of course, it could just be back testing the resistance line from below somewhere within the blue circle as well. If it breaks out of that, however, a much, much larger rally could be in store. You can safely set your stops at $11.69 right now. In other words, it is very, very unlikely to be able to take you out at that level and then bounce higher after leaving you in the ditch. If it goes down there, it is likely going even lower. These are how the odds work in this stock gambling game. Tell yourself this 3 times and it will help get your mind right about this game:
there is no such thing as stock market investing; it's all gambling.
there is no such thing as stock market investing; it's all gambling.
there is no such thing as stock market investing; it's all gambling.
Metals and miners update
In this post near the end of May this year I modeled that the metals and miners were due for a bounce. While I indicated that a lower low was possible, JNUG began to rally almost from the day of that post. Here is the GDXJ model in early June which expected a big M+M rally into D of 4. In this subsequent post I modeled a small pullback and then higher highs with the target starting to smell like low 30s. In this subsequent post, I used GDXJ to model the miner's rally as being almost over and that pain was about to come to the sector. I modeled the blue path as a peak to $44 when in fact it peaked just $2 higher at $46.50.
Since then, GDXJ has plummeted, breaking down both the top rail and the bottom rail of the 4th wave triangle. The EW model suggests that from the peak we should see 5 waves down and then a rally that should retrace the entire metals sell off that started in late 2010. By retrace, I mean to the prior 4th, or the 38.2 or the 50 fib, etc. I think it will be a bigger positive retracement than expected because if that monster collapse of silver was just wave A then without a big B wave rally, silver will be a negative number before the M+M bear market is over.
At this point the only requirement for this 5th wave down is that it be made up of 5 waves. I think that it could now be at the end of (or very near the end of) 3 of 5, a model best visualized on the 240 minute chart lower left. The chart might have ended mid channel and we will know pretty quickly tomorrow whether this model is any good or not. So I jumped back into JNUG just after the close today @11.90 and will set my stops just below yesterday's low of $11.70.
Gold is also plumbing the oversold depths as you can see from the RSI below. It's only been this oversold 3 other times this year. Perhaps we are only looking at 3 of 5, perhaps the full 5 waves down have transpired or perhaps, worst case for M+M longs, this is only 3 of 1 or 5 of 1 of 5! It's impossible to say at this point. The best form would occur if 5 was lower than black 3 and so that should be kept in mind. At the same time, the e of 4 wave was a short stroke. Perhaps a sho5th will be used to compensate for that.
Regardless, JNUG has been selling off 10% per day on a regular basis for the past few days so I will be trying to catch the bounce on it (and bailing out quickly if I'm wrong...) while TVIX decides whether it is going to rock or roll.
Since then, GDXJ has plummeted, breaking down both the top rail and the bottom rail of the 4th wave triangle. The EW model suggests that from the peak we should see 5 waves down and then a rally that should retrace the entire metals sell off that started in late 2010. By retrace, I mean to the prior 4th, or the 38.2 or the 50 fib, etc. I think it will be a bigger positive retracement than expected because if that monster collapse of silver was just wave A then without a big B wave rally, silver will be a negative number before the M+M bear market is over.
At this point the only requirement for this 5th wave down is that it be made up of 5 waves. I think that it could now be at the end of (or very near the end of) 3 of 5, a model best visualized on the 240 minute chart lower left. The chart might have ended mid channel and we will know pretty quickly tomorrow whether this model is any good or not. So I jumped back into JNUG just after the close today @11.90 and will set my stops just below yesterday's low of $11.70.
Gold is also plumbing the oversold depths as you can see from the RSI below. It's only been this oversold 3 other times this year. Perhaps we are only looking at 3 of 5, perhaps the full 5 waves down have transpired or perhaps, worst case for M+M longs, this is only 3 of 1 or 5 of 1 of 5! It's impossible to say at this point. The best form would occur if 5 was lower than black 3 and so that should be kept in mind. At the same time, the e of 4 wave was a short stroke. Perhaps a sho5th will be used to compensate for that.
Regardless, JNUG has been selling off 10% per day on a regular basis for the past few days so I will be trying to catch the bounce on it (and bailing out quickly if I'm wrong...) while TVIX decides whether it is going to rock or roll.
Market update
The jury is still out with respect to the next move. Again, common EW counts indicate that we should be breaking down right now but I don't yet see the panic. So while I see the potential for a market bounce, I'm still holding overnight. Again, when the big selling begins, when the panic is clear, your best bet will be to not try to get too tricky. Slow down with trading and let the trend be your friend. Until then I have to protect my capital so that I have the cash to play the crash.
Lower left is the $COMPX since 2009. So I do currently model 5 of C to be over and that means a bear market should soon unveil itself if this count is correct. The first step would be to break down the lower green rail and to potentially back test it from below. Per the lower right picture, I think that could be happening right now. Then we should see the lower blue rail get taken out. Then we should see some real support at the level of blue 4 on the left hand higher level picture.
Any move above 4525 will put me on the warning track with TVIX and at 4560 or higher I am on the sidelines with TVIX until the market bounce plays out. Any massive gap down by the markets is confirmation of the awakening bear and it would be the first move on TVIX's way to $7-$8.
Lower left is the $COMPX since 2009. So I do currently model 5 of C to be over and that means a bear market should soon unveil itself if this count is correct. The first step would be to break down the lower green rail and to potentially back test it from below. Per the lower right picture, I think that could be happening right now. Then we should see the lower blue rail get taken out. Then we should see some real support at the level of blue 4 on the left hand higher level picture.
Any move above 4525 will put me on the warning track with TVIX and at 4560 or higher I am on the sidelines with TVIX until the market bounce plays out. Any massive gap down by the markets is confirmation of the awakening bear and it would be the first move on TVIX's way to $7-$8.
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