Unplanned update

In this post from last week I wrote that the anti-abortion film, "Unplanned" was made for $6mn and whose best days of revenue generation were still to come.  At the time, the box office receipts were $8 mn.  Today, the left gets another unplanned wake up call as the box office revenues from this low budget film topped $14 mn.  If you accept the general rule of thumb that the studio gets about 60% of a film's US ticket sales and also assume that the advertising budget for Unplanned was very low (MAYBE 1 or 2 million), then the current $14 mn number represents break even for the studio while still early in theater runs (remember, theaters showing it are now increasing by 50%).  And then there is overseas showing and DVD/streaming revenues. 



Making movies is a business.  If businessmen/women see that there is a low risk high reward way to make a profit then expect more and more to go that route.  Sure, blockbuster films with highly paid actors and CGI, etc. get a ton of revenue, but not all are profitable and in some cases the losses can be staggering.  For example 2018 Robin Hood cost $100mn to make and only $65mn global box office receipts.   Assuming a blended 50% (domestic-60%, foreign 40%) box office take by the studio that means they got $33 million plus a piddling Wal-Mart bargain bin DVD revenue and maybe a few million more from streaming, it means that someone burnt up $40-$50 million on that dud.  Someone took too much risk re-making robin hood for the 200th time.  But the Unplanned max loss was $8mn on the risk side and now the reward side could be as high as $20-40 mn.  That's what I call ROI.  And when movie makers see ROI they will do more of same in order to repeat the past success.