Get out of [AAPL] baby...

If you scroll to the bottom my Nov 2014 update on the wave count of Apple computer, you will find my primary model which is reproduced below.  The model essentially said that AAPL shares could trade up to $150.  It also clearly showed how each wave of the expanding wedge was made up of three sub waves lettered a-b-c.



If we fast forward to the current actual chart of today we see that the model morphed into a much deeper B wave than red B shown above but that we are now very late into the C of 5 wave.  There are many guidelines that these models use and one of them is that the C wave of a 3 wave movement is often equal in length to the A wave. 




Zooming in to only show C of 5 we see that  the chart has perfectly kissed the resistance line where C is equal to A.  There might still be a few bucks of upside in this trade because another guideline is that the 5th wave (lime green 5 in this case) is often equal in length to the first wave (lime green 1) when the 3rd wave is extended (which it is).  So the range where this is expected to peak is roughly the grey oblong, the low end of which has already been hit.



The implication of this is that a major peak has likely been reached and that a dramatic pullback is likely coming soon.  In fact, the pullbacks from expanding wedges tend to happen rapidly which makes them good candidates for the purchase of put options. 

Right now if you read the news about AAPL its all positive and thus any negative thinking about the stock chart is viewed by the herd as a ridiculous thing.  I write this not for current readers; they already know it is ridiculous to be in any way negative on AAPL shares.  Thus these words are meant for future readers who will wonder how in the heck anyone could have predicted a big sell off was coming.  An example of the headlines I am seeing today are that the iphone X is gorgeous pricey and worth it and how powerful Apple and others are "over our daily lives".  This is herding talk, folks.  Emotional herd talk.  We are a herding species and so we need to expect that much of the banter we hear has no intellectual value, it's just telling people what they think they want to hear.

In truth, corporate shares have no intrinsic value and so any value attributed to them occurs through a group agreement to do so.  In other words, the share price has nothing to do with independent thought and everything to do with following the herd.  So if you want to have any shot at predicting the major turns you need to not listen to the headlines or the MSNBC pundits or idiots like Cramer - they are all just reflections of the herd.  They will never anticipate anything different than a continuation of current circumstances.  That's why they always shoot behind the duck, late to the party.

If you want to anticipate the turns you have to model the behavior of herds and that is what Elliott waves allow us to do.  It sounded crazy for me to "call" (model really) the top for IBM back in this post but it happened anyway and I expect today's topping call (model) for AAPL to behave in a similar manner. 

The reason that the stock market is difficult for most people is that they are looking at the wrong damned thing.  They listen to self serving Wall St. bullshit.  Maybe its time to try different thinking.  When AAPL begins to break down on cue according to the clear model I have just provided, perhaps you should consider subscribing to my Elliott wave based market timing service.  At only $39.95 per month I cover dozens of stocks giving a broad, model based picture of where markets are heading based not on gut feel or today's news but rather on a model based approach which uses hard data (the chart of the share price) as its primary input.  That's about the only way you will ever have any idea of just how low AAPL shares are likely to dip in the coming pullback.