[ORIG] update

In the backlink I provided the model below.



Zooming in on that we can see that I was expecting one more wave down, likely to bottom in the 80 cent range.



While we did go down today, we did not get all the way down into the 80 cent range yet.  In fact, while today was 5 down, it did not put in a lower low than yesterday which makes one wonder if today was a failed 5th.  If so, this should be moving up at the open tomorrow and so I bought a nice position in the early extended trade for just over 92 cents.

With the cancellation of one contract and a notice of material breach in another (as that customer tries to get out of his contract too), ORIG has been beaten senseless as if it is already turning in its going concern notice.  I guess oil will just go to zero now and all drillers and oil services will immediately go worthless.  Too bad for shorts that it rarely works like that.  While the USO chart does not look like it is quite at a bottom just yet, a recovery in oil price is coming soon IMO.  The market really needed to see some big name outfits like CHK fall.  This is blood in the streets folks.

In any case, if this count is correct then we should not go below $0.92 again so I am setting my stops at $0.91.  Trust by making the trade.  Verify by using stops.  If the count is any good then the stops will never be triggered.  If the count is wrong, the stops will save you over and over again.