[USO] update [ORIG]

The model from the backlink is below.  This model has been in place for some time now with little variation.  USO is very near a significant bottom.





Below is the progress since the last update.  This is nearly picture perfect Elliott so far.  Note that oil has hit an 11 year low.  Read the article.  All it does is to state the obvious and then to predict more of the same.  The folks who are quoted supposedly know the fundamentals of the business but none of these people saw it coming.  So why would I believe that they will know when the bottom is in?  They might know about the oil business but that does not means they have even the faintest idea of where stocks will trade tomorrow or next year.

I don't know why anyone even bothers asking them anymore as many times as they have been wrong.  Not that my EW analysis is always right (although my results have been kicking EWI's ass for quite some time now and I'm even finding Avi to be less than insightful on many occasions).  Nobody is always right.  But that is not required!  What is needed is to know what the odds are that you will be right and at what point to just admit that you are wrong.  Nothing except EW does this for you.  Today's chart looks very much like the model above; this is not just coincidence because it happens over and over.

Neither is it magic or genius. It's simply an understanding that humans generally herd in certain ways and that Elliott waves can help you model that behavior.

Zooming in, I model AM strength and then a reversal that ultimately approaches $9.50 - $9.70 in 5 waves as shown in red below.  The orange slant just maps wave blue 1 length down to estimate blue 5.

Alternately, the sideways action that is happening right into the close can turn into a HT4th and then plummet into a 5th.




ORIG and GLNCY and many other "resource" tickers probably already bottomed and are now in the process of either putting in a failed 5th or a deep vee 2nd.  The ORIG chart is below for reference.  It has not put in a new low and today looked like it finished up a HT (pointed to by the blue arrow) which is probably B of 2.