Today the VNR shareholders threw another hissy fit, down 13.6% thus breaking back down into the HT channel and signalling that wave 5 down is likely in progress.
Folks, remember that Moody's just recently downgraded the debt of this fund but landed it still in investment grade territory. So this is not a case of imminent BK by any means. These emotional swings are thus your friend. Remember what I wrote about UGAZ near the recent bottom? I wrote, "Today's action took us one step closer to a major bottom on this which, after it is put in, will lead to a likely double, yes, double within 7 trading days.".
UGAZ then bottomed at $1.29 on Dec 16. As of today, 7 trading days have transpired since that bottom and UGAZ is now trading at $2.32. $2.58 would be a double so I didn't quite nail that call but the percentage gain per unit time is still astronomical. It speaks to the immense power of having Elliott waves on your team. While I was planning my purchases, "stock fundamentalists" were freaking out running around with their hair on fire. With any luck we will get another shot at lower UNG prices if Avi's count is correct for USO. I don't mean a lower low, I mean a double bottom. UGAZ doesn't have to trade in lock step with USO. Use stops on your UGAZ gains and never forget about the high odds of a deep vee second.
VNR seems to be trading per Avi's USO count which only makes sense. A mid channel bottom would be $2 which would push the divvy to ~18% which is pretty ridiculously high for an investment grade venture. Of course, that amount is mice nuts to those who got lured in by high divvies at the top and then saw their capital evaporate. Today's VNR action shows that current investors obviously think the sky is falling. Its only new investors who buy the EW-defined bottom who will be thrilled with the deal they will be getting. So thrilled, in fact, that this will also likely double very rapidly off the coming bottom.
Have you seen the long-tailed hammer on the $natgas monthly? I will never say never but a retest of the lows in UGAZ or any related equity seems unlikely to my eyes. When I started buying UGAZ between $1.35 and $1.50 I had a suspicion that lateral or channel support may hold on the monthly.
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Well you probably know that I don't follow candlestick analysis very much. I focus on EW and then augment with a few of my own observations, some of which might already be covered by candlestick analysis. I did work with it some years ago but the formation could not be trusted, at least my analysis of them was not right to the extent that it dd not increase my gambling odds. With EW at least I know when I am wrong. More power to those who have good luck with CS. Whatever works.
ReplyDeleteStarted position in VNR at 2.82 with today's drop.
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