[UGAZ] update

Per expectations from the backlink model shown below, UGAZ put in wave 1 up and is now expected to pull back sharply on a percentage basis.




The pullback should be a 5-3-5 deal.  You can see the wave threw over the top rail and then fell back into the channel which is a sell signal.  The it back tested the upper rail into the close in 3 waves, another very clear sell signal.

So what is not clear as of yet is whether the herd will count the 5 waves down back into the channel as A of 2 or 1 of A of 2.  If the former then the kiss from below is B of 2 and we shall see this bottom per the red path at the 38.2 fib.  If this is all the deeper that the retracement can do then it is very bullish indeed.  It means that the market is not fooling about and that something has changed that is not obvious to the masses.  The careful herd watcher sees these seemingly small signals and does not ignore them.

The more typical pullback at this point would be per the dark blue path - a deepish vee 2nd to the 61.8 fib which is also the level of the prior 4th.  In this case the move downward probably completed 2 of A of 2 today.

Folks, buy the dip here.  The odds are now very much with you on the long side, at least for another wave up to a higher high than 1.85.  But after the ass kicking that energy has received of late I will be surprised if this tops out in the $2.50 region in a C wave.  My higher level count says this was a big bottom and $4 is the very minimum we should expect and that $11 is not out of line for expectations given that it is the level of the prior 4th.  Only play UGAZ during expected motive runs folks, it is guaranteed to go to zero over time.  If you are looking for buy and hold, think about ORIG.