[CJES] update - critical decision point for commodities

At the backlink we had the model below:



Since then we have 5 waves up which could either be 1 of 3 or it could be C of 4.  I think it can go either way.   If Avis is right about gold needing one more low, all commodities will probably be in synch for that.  Set your alarms per the blue horizontal because if CJES can break above that then the current wave cannot be 3 of 1 of 5 (which is the red path), it must instead be C of 2 of 3 and that implies the blue path.  For the sake of conservatism I am switching my primary model to the bear case (red) but if that blue horizontal breaks out I will revert to the primary being that my commodities bottoming call of late Aug is going to hold true.



If we get the red path, however, I think that it represents a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy commodities, especially oil services and miners of all commodities.  This would be the final wave of the model that Avi has had in place, believe it or not, since the M+M peak of 2011.