[USLV] threat model applies to all metals and miners

In the backlink I provided the model below.



Since then the blue model seems to have been taken.  But notice how that blue line in the model above stopped at the level of the prior 4th.  That's because the threat model below is still in effect.  In short, a slight rearrangement of the count and a more heavy lean on CWT and we could be left with a W3 being just "a" bottom instead of being "the" bottom for commodities, metals and miners.  It was a great place to continue accumulating for long term holds but those playing the likes of JNUG and USLV have got to remain paranoid else the recent profits could quickly turn into losses.

The threat model is not the primary model.  It is an alternate model which I see as a valid threat.  Call it 55:44 odds (primary:alternate) with a 1% chance of something completely unexpected happening.

Still, the model is very actionable.  The current wave must not fall below blue horizontal without setting off major alarm bells.  I would stop out there and then stand back and see WTF is really happening.

Also, if we fill the gap and cannot blow past it then we should suspect the blue path.  Finally, if we get a full 5 waves up that stops at the level of the prior 4th, it will likely be an expanded flat that is a 4th wave (blue 4 below) leading to either an inclining double bottom failed 5th or a full on 5th wave capitulation bottom in which case Avi' long standing model will have to be declared the victor.  In other words, that would be the major buy signal of our lifetimes.  It will likely mean that a monster 2nd wave is done and that metals and miners will begin a massive ascent to new 3rd wave highs over the next decade right along with increasing inflation and increasing velocity of money due to loss of confidence in the fed.


I'll say it again and again because it is so easy to lose sight of the fact: EW are not a crystal ball and high level calls with long term implications are for sport and bragging rights more than anything.  That literally goes triple when playing JNUG/JDST because if you look at the monthly charts of those trading ETFs, both are down because of the time value in the options used to implement the 3x leverage. 

Gold has been in a bear since 2011 yet JDST is still down big time over that period.  So get the idea of "buy and hold" out of your head for ANY of the leveraged ETFs.  If you want to cost average into a buy and hold position, either go for GDXJ or for more safety, go for individual gold mining companies and get rid of the middle man ETF manager (who is potentially corrupt and might not own all the stated mining assets that you paid for). 

If you plan to hold these for a long time like 5-10 years then do yourself a favor and get them out of your brokerage by requesting physical share certificates.  The brokers are just as open to corruption by the Mammon money system, same as anyone else, and I doubt that when the SHTF they will have all the shares on account that they sold to people.  In other words, I expect that they have been playing the fractional reserve game with shares just like central banks do with dollars just like commodities exchanges do with gold.