[JNUG] update

In the chart from the backlink I was looking for a 5th wave up to assert itself so that I could be more confident about my recent bottoming call on commodities.  After all, drive for show, putt for dough.  Lose track of the short game in JNUG and you can get creamed quickly.  Then again, you can also be up nearly 50% in two trading days...



Since I am already in this very near the bottom, my only real worry is keeping my recent gains.  It might first appear that 5 waves up happened after the level of the green arrow making the part covered by the blue bracket 5 of 1.  In that case we should expect an a-b-c back to perhaps $8.20.  But this would be a wrong count because the short red horizontal tells us that the 4th wave in that sequence fell back into the range of the 1st wave of it.  Thus, something else is playing out.  The threat is of course that this is just WC, and that it stalled at what could possibly be counted as the prior 4th (it's possible to count 5 waves down to the bottom).

Since I used EW to get in at such a great price relative to today's close, I actually decided to hold over the weekend.  My stops are set just below the lower red rail.  If we move up on Monday to throw over the rising wedge and then fall back into the channel then that is a sell signal.  In that case I will look for support at the green arrow.  If it falls through that and then into the area of the red arrow or below, it is  confirmed sell signal.  I will not wait nearly that long.



So again, bold statements about tops or bottoms are great and all but let the near term wave count be your real guide and you cannot go far wrong.  Odds are also increased by looking at related plays, even if there is not a 1:1 correspondence between metals and miners they will within a few days converge.  In the SLV 10 minute chart below we will either gap up per the blue path but more likely finish a 3-3-5 flat correction into green 2.

This is, was and always will be about odds that driver triggers.  It will never be about certainties.  No gambling outcome is ever certain, there are only the odds, the winners who understand them and the losers who don't.