[$TNX.X] update

At the backlink I commented that I thought a trip to the lower rail had the best odds.  Today's snapshot shows that is happening.  Importantly:

- the gap down did not take out the lower rail.  That lower rail can only be taken out by a 3rd wave so inability to do that with the current gap suggests that the current move will likely end up being corrective.  In other words, the first rising wedge will be treated as a leading diagonal into blue 1 and now a-b-c into blue 2 which will find support at the lower rail during 5 of C of 2 before reversing back upwards to new highs.

If this happens then it will be a clear 3rd wave up and the margin-ridden markets will have no choice but to assume that Yellen has lost control of the bond markets and thus of their margin interest costs.  The only outcome from this can be to sell stocks to reduce margin service.  Once this begins it will quickly turn into "last one out is left with an empty paper bag" because the true, intrinsic value of stocks that don't pay dividends is ZERO.