[XLNX] looks ready to collapse.

In the history of my blog I have done exactly one post on Xilinx, a semiconductor play.  Here is the 
backlink and below is the model I provided.





The updated snapshot below zooms in on just blue 1 of black 5 from the above model.  As you can see, I modeled that 5 waves would come down to test the top rail from above in order to form blue 1.  Then the model suggested that it would bounce significantly. 

In fact, blue 1 bottomed at around $36.25 which is quite near the modeled bottom of blue 1.  Then it enjoyed a 3 wave move up from Oct 2014.  That wave may or may not be over but the time is drawing near IMO.  If it went any higher I think it would stall at $48.20 which is the 61.8% fib.


Importantly, the next wave down should be a C or 3 and than means it should fall off rapidly per unit time.  Per my original model you can see that I think wave 3 bottoms in the $18-$20 range.  I think a conservative options play would be to buy the Jan 2017 $30 puts for about $1 if you can get someone to bite.  Bid is .75, ask is 1.41, a ridiculous spread.

30.00

XLNX170120P00030000

1.56

0.75

1.41

I doubt that XLNX will be falling alone.  I think the semis will be one of the first groups to collapse however.  That's because they boom and bust with consumer consumption cycles and even fabless outfits have high overheads in terms of salaried professionals.  I don't know if Xilinx has any fabs or not these days but their stock is volatile for a reason and the chart model below is suggesting that it is going to work against shareholders for the next year.