Last chance for shorts [DJIA]

In the backlink I decided that the chart was not bearish looking and so I went to the sidelines on UVXY.  Fortunately, this turned out to be a good decision as the shares fell another 5.7% into the close.  However, today's bullish move on the DJIA was not all that and a box of chocolate.  The past model, shown below suggested that the DJIA should be heading up into 3 of 1 of 3.


However, today's 76 point move up occurred without any gap.  It did not evoke feelings of 3rd wavishness in me.  Because of the nature of today's move I am changing my primary model to that shown below.  In essence, it is a reversion to the 1-2, 1-2 model that I had been using up until yesterday.  What I see here is that green 2 did not break out above the start of green 1 which I think should have happened had this been a 3rd wave up.  The 3rd wave should have settled all doubt.  It should have been the moment of recognition.  Yet all it did was leave more questions in the count for most EWers.

But with my WX theory, I can easily count the recent move as a rising wedge forming green WC2.  IF this is in fact the case then we should see a break down of the lower rail here most Riki-tik as shown by the red model below.  In order for this to be convincing, the move must show some gusto.  Such moves are usually accompanied by some news which the move can be attributed to.  But in looking at the action since blue 5 peaked I see two things:

• lower highs and lower lows
• motive looking moves down with corrective moves up

Today was the day where the DJIA needed to convince me that the bounce from the start of April was in fact motive and it not only failed to do that, it also created the perfect finish to a corrective wave.

Zooming in, we can see that the wedge is formed by a series of 3 wave moves which likely peaked late this afternoon.  So I expect a little bit of AM strength tomorrow and then an AM reversal which should test the lower rail and then bounce as shown.  That might take all day to occur so that Friday can be used as gap down day as shown.  So I will be buying UVXY tomorrow AM with tight stops.  I will hold it below the top rail of DJIA and dump it above the top rail.  Simple as that.