[ASA] update

Backlink.

The model from the backlink expected that the gap fill was the end of the selling.  It was a perfectly logical and reasonable model assumption.



In fact, the chart did find support exactly there for a good sized bounce.  But when that wave peaked and then fell below the 61.8 fib I would have known something was wrong had I had the bandwidth to check this chart every day.

In any case, this looks to be setting itself up for an inclining double bottom.  I do not think it will be able to create a new low because the move up from December appears clearly motive and I don't see evidence of a expanded flat correction, etc.

Regardless of what else happens we should all be looking for dips to buy in this range.  Or just sit it out and wait for the wave to turn back up and then decide which of the red circles represents enough of a reversal trigger for you to buy into.

And then use stops below it.  Had I not been using stops I would have lots 20% today on JNUG instead of "only" 10%.  Stops cannot save you from everything given the ability of the market to gap like it did today, but you simply must use them as a point of habit because they will save you over and over and over again in your trading career.