[UVXY] update

In the backlink I suspected that we were at a critical point where either higher or lower were both possible.  However, a clear trigger was provided, the break of the lower rail of the model and even well before that, if the red model was going to happen then it needed to occur right away.  So tight stops were clearly indicated by this model.



As it turns out, the blue model was taken and we are now at or very near the expected termination point.  While this could be the start of the great market breakdown, it could just be the 4th wave of UVXY.  We will get a better idea of things as it begins to play out but I would like to see a move to $24.50 and then reversal and vee bottom in the $21 range for now.  If you just want to play it safe, hang back until the blue rising resistance line is broken to the upside and then expect a ride to the 61.8 fib @ $42.

One thing is clear: a bull market this powerful is not going to just die.  It will probably roll over as incoming data gets worse and worse with pockets of false green shoots here and there to keep the hope alive.  UVXY looks like it is putting in some kind of W3 either like that on the left or more likely like that on the right. 

If it were not for my W3 theory I would be saying a bottom is likely in but with all this volatility near the turn no EWer could be exactly sure by using EW rules alone.  So I am going to slant my counts as shown below until more data comes in.  Do pay attention to the exponentially rising volume!! 

Volume peaks like this generally denote trend changes.

One last thing: on the right hand chart before I have red "or 4".  That could in fact be "or 3 of a new bull market in fear".   See the bottom chart as to how that might look.

UVXY bullish model below says that W3 above is a misread.  If you add it all up, the higher odds play is to go long UVXY with stops @$22 and if they get triggered look to re-buy @$20.50-$21.  Whatever your buy in point is your stop (-25 cents of you like...).  You risk a buck in order to potentially double your money within 3-4 weeks.