[$TNX.X] update

Today saw a pullback in the 10 year treasury rate that I think is most likely part of a larger pullback to the mid $19 level.  I will know I am wrong about this if the rates move back up above 21.10 tomorrow but my current model is the red model which should see a 3 wave pullback to around$19.61 which also happens to be the level of the prior 4th.

If the 38.2 can't hold then I would bail out until more data would be available to guide the count.  It is always possible that the market thinks the recent move up was a 3 wave move (even though I think it is remote odds).  If it does it could likely follow the blue path.  I would not hold much past the 38.2 fib and in fact even a breakdown of the 23.6 should be sold by nimble day traders.

If my primary model is correct then we get another day or two of calm but then rates begin to take off, spooking the markets and boosting metals and miners.