What I do know is this: the retracement was well beyond my typical limit of 61.8% fib and well below most other EWer's lowest fib of 70.7%. So I have to count this as bearish meaning wave 1 down with the current bounce approaching the 38.2 fib to be wave 2.
If this is the case then a move back to 101.88 would be the 38.2 and 103.38 would be the 50 fib but then we should see cliff diving. These shares have shown too much weakness of late to expect a really deep vee 2nd wave. If something beyond the 38.2 fib occurs then I'm going to start looking at this more closely for other potential outcomes.
Cap'n,
ReplyDeleteAt 102.36 now. Look out below?
Steven B.
Hi Steven,
ReplyDeleteIt sure does look corrective into the 50 fib. Of course anything can happen and so this is all about odds but I think the odds are stacking up on the bearish side here.
I see the peak on the 18th as a, dip on the 20th as b, now working on c, likely 3 of C. Probably finishes it today. In this model we should see a downturn begin as early as tomorrow. If that model is correct it should be the start of a 3rd wave down. Time will tell and by now you know that this is all about odds and never about certainties. EW just reduces the # of likely possibilities that the herd will take. It guarantees nothing except that, when looking in the rear view, that the EW rules will have been followed.