Monday, February 23, 2015

[RUSL] update

In the backlink I warned that RUSL was at a critical juncture technically with a clearly bearish overtone.  I wrote that I continue to expect "...a move up into the $27-28 range and then a massive reversal back down to create a new lower low than the mid December low.  Today we almost got there but it looks like a bit of follow through is possible on Monday in order to completely fill the gap shown below.  Also, it looks like a triangle formed.  Of course that little bit could take place in the extended trade today and thus not show up on my charts so it would be risky IMVHO to try to grub that last dollar out of the trade by holding over the weekend.".

That insight seems to have been correct this time as the shares since peaked to  $28.68 and then reversed.  In fact, it plummeted 16.5 % today.  At this point it is still possible that the reversal so far is just an a-b-c.  In other words, red a is 1 red b is 2 red c is 1 of 3 current level is 2 of 3 and soon to take off to higher highs.  Again, the count would support that.  But the shape of the wave makes that a distant second likelihood to my primary model which is that the December low was blue 3, the recent high was blue 4 and now 5 waves down to a double bottom or even a lower low will complete the count.  If that plays out then don't be afraid to buy because it will be a high odds reversal and the first target would be the level of the prior 4th (blue 4).  From $5 or $6 to$28 would be nothing to sneeze at from a percentage perspective.

Again, what are all the "fundamentals" that drive these moves?  Truly, they are unknown and unknowable by mortal man and so spending a lot of time on them is a trivial pursuit, a hobby or just a plain old waste of time.


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