Friday, February 20, 2015

JNUG very near bottom here.

I count the action of the last couple days as a 3 wave move (E of 2) that might have completed today or might need to throw under on Monday and then reverse upward into Tuesday.  If we get lucky enough to have an AM sell off on Monday that breaks the lower rail I will be buying it as soon as it breaks back up into the channel.  Failing that, the breakout of the top rail is the clear buy signal but if that happens buy the pullback which will likely test the upper rail from above instead of buying the peak and then getting scared out on the pullback.

Of course nobody knows the future and this is only a model so always use stops.  Having said that, the action since Jan 16th does not look motive at all.  It looks totally corrective whereas the action from mid January looks totally motive.  The pullback on GDXJ is now at the 50 fib.  Could it go lower?  Of course!  It could go to the 61.8 if it needs to do so in order to fool most people.  But I suspect the reversal will be quick in order to leave most people sitting on the sidelines.  Thus, although I think it is possible to go lower on Monday I'm keeping half a position over the weekend just in case they gap it up on Monday.


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