Saturday, February 28, 2015

[JNUG] update

In the backlink I modeled that blue 1 up was complete and that we should be watchful that the retracement into wave would not be a deep vee.  It appears not to have been at least not so far.  As you can see from below, both of the rails of the falling wedge were broken out of and I have two main counts shown below.

The primary count ignores w3 and says that blue 1 broke out of the channel but could not hold and so fell back through into blue 2 but now 1 of 3 broke back out and then back tested from above.  If this is the right model them either it heads up from the open (red path)  or it goes up a little and then comes back down for a full kiss of the falling orange rail (blue path).

It is also possible that a small first wave broken into the channel then back tested down to $26 then crossed the whole body of the falling wedge in wave 3 (marked green w3) and then back down into the channel only to break out again during 3 of 5.

If the latter model is in play, the pullback into blue 2 could be deep vee still down to fill the gap at 26.80 so be sure to us stops here.  In general, a gap up at the open will be immediately bullish but a move down should be considered a wave 2 pullback that will eventually smash its way out during wave 3 up.

Stop out at 28.79.  If you get stopped out get back in above 29.60 OR hope like heck that they give you a $2 discount down to 26.80.  In any case if we are still working on B or 2 or C of 2, just wait 5 waves down for c to express itself before getting back in but be sure to be in JNUG for 3 of 3.

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