First confirmation in the expected [$COMPX] breakdown arrives.

Backlink.  Current chart is below.  This is why I have been talking about loading up with UVXY on max margin (which of course I did/am).  I normally don't use margin at all but this is a good setup that has been telegraphing for some time now so I deemed the risk/reward with using margin to be deeply in my favor this time.

For the record, we only have first confirmation.  This could turn out to be a large a-b-c to mid channel and then bust right back out the top rail.  The key at this point is to move the stops up to red 1.  If red 3 is really playing out right now.  It has now hit a lower low than red 1.  If this model is correct then it will bottom and put in red 4.  Since red 2 was a deep vee, red 4 could be a bit sideways but it CANNOT go back up into the region of red 1 without breaking the model.  So set stops 1 penny into red 1 and just let it play out.  Again, the goal of this is not to say that the market must follow my model.  The goal is for me to know when the model I have selected is either likely right or wrong.  Those who pooh-pooh this kind of TA suffer from a lack of understanding of this basic idea.   In their ignorance they believe that chartists believe we can absolutely predict the future.  That is of course, impossible and I say that as pretty much the only person I have seen on the web who suspected in early January that things could likely play out as they have.  This is not bragging, it's all a matter of written record as long time readers can attest.

Until this breaks below the lower rail we only have 1 breakdown confirmation.  I am not trying to waffle on the fact that I FEEL that the breakdown is upon us but only a fool trades by gut feel.  Mr. Market uses our humanity, our emotions and our herding instincts against us every time.  So the EW rules must guide all trades, period.

USE STOPS, especially if you margined to the gills on UVXY like I did.