[$COMPX] update [DJIA]

There is little change in status for $COMPX today but I did want to point out how this chart is different from the similar but different DJIA chart that I commented on here.  While the 4th wave of the potential HT in DJIA is choppy with many transitions above and below the lower rail, that of $COMPX below shows none of this uncertainty.  This is what I meant by what the typical 4th wave HT usually does.  This one tested the lower rail, broke down, and then broke back up into the channel.  Now it should do a 5 wave move to at least break out of the top of the channel but in fact any 5-3-5-3-5 move up from black 4 should qualify as black 5.

The sell signal for $COMPX is a break below the lower rail.  I would prefer to see the whole 5 waves play out in a normal 5th wave up to a higher high than black 3.  Not because I want to go long this market but rather because the subsequent breakdown would be of higher confidence if we got a proper 4th HT and then a proper higher high 5th.  If this plays out it would mean near term trouble for UVXY so don't fight the ticker.  It is more important to not lose money than to always grub every last dime out of the swing.

At the same time, traders should be on high alert right now because we can easily get some kind of rapid move up in $COMPX that takes out stops and then rapidly reverses and closes much lower in order to whipsaw as many traders as possible out of their positions.  Many people set stops and then check back the next day.  It is a good strategy for most people.  The problem is when a big move happens without them they think the train has left the station and that it is too late to get in.  This is human herding behavior.  Smart traders will resist this gut feeling and instead use buy and sell triggers.  If $COMPX whipped up to 4800, took out all stops and then broke down the lower rail and closed all the way down at 4440 that same day then this would be the massive UVXY buy signal not the "oh crap, I missed the train" indicator.  In this case, you wait for the retracement, observe it to be 3 waves, and THEN jump in short.